Strength of top overcards in a non-hitting flop

[hate]

A thread I posted some time ago had a list of three AK hands I'd played to varying degrees of losing. I've been looking at stats using pokenum, but it doesn't seem to be fulfilling what I'm looking for. I'm about 24% to win with a flush and straight-drawless board against top pair with anything except my outs for a kicker, 21% to win against a single dirty out who doesn't have a pair made and the person playing TP, and about 13% to win when the third player, instead of having nothing except my dirty K or Q, has mid or low pair and one of my dirty outs is covered.

If that's hard to understand in text:

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in all of them

Board has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villains have:

Hand 1
1 Villain Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

28% to win

Hand 2
2 Villains Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

21% to win

Hand 3
2 Villains Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

13% to win

Now to me, all three of these are extremely likely scenarios, only with more players. How do these percentages justify me even staying in when I have such bad odds to win? These are with 1 or 2 Villains, and I'll either be putting in 50% or 33% of the pot. With more players and depending on pot size, I can maybe understand playing off those overcards until the turn, but that's as far as I think I can justify going. Am I missing something here, or what? I'd really like to pin down some type of play with these overcards, because they happen very frequently, and it seems like I'm losing money regardless of how I play these.

I assumed the bettor had top pair, but in late position I can assume he probably has a pair of some sort, and percentages don't change much.

So, I guess my question is, what makes these hands worth playing come the flop? Are implied odds worth something with TPTK if it does hit? Is this too many stupid questions in a thread?

[Aaron W.]

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So, I guess my question is, what makes these hands worth playing come the flop? Are implied odds worth something with TPTK if it does hit?

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You're not *ALWAYS* staring down top pair. That's the first error in your analysis. In short-handed pots, ace-high may win unimproved.

If you always folded overcards, you will encourage players to bet into you on the flop. (Some say that most micro players aren't paying enough attention, but raising preflop and folding to one bet on the flop stands out.)

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I'd really like to pin down some type of play with these overcards, because they happen very frequently, and it seems like I'm losing money regardless of how I play these.

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Good luck. There is no single path to overcard play. Pay attention to the style of your opponents. Push harder against weak-tight players than weak-loose players, give up more quickly against passive ones (especially if they stop and go you), call down lags more often, and play poker against the good tricky ones.

[hate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, I guess my question is, what makes these hands worth playing come the flop? Are implied odds worth something with TPTK if it does hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not *ALWAYS* staring down top pair. That's the first error in your analysis. In short-handed pots, ace-high may win unimproved.



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The percentages didn't make a difference whether the bettor had any made pair, which I thought was at least a mitigating factor in me assuming that he actually has something. I've started to more dynamically play these like you suggest, but it still seems like I'm missing something elemental.