what to do with AK here?

[mike l.]

i didnt play this hand. hero is a semifamous long time LA mid limit pro who plays pretty well. utg is a very good 2+2er. other players i dont know. 50-100 live game in LA.

hero is in mp w/ AKo. utg raises, donk calls, hero 3 bets, blinds call, utg and donk call. 5 for 3 bets.

flop is AhJh8s. all check to hero who bets, sb folds, bb calls, utg checkraises, donk calls two cold, hero 3 bets, blind folds, utg 4 bet/caps, donk calls, hero calls.

the turn is 3c. utg bets, donk calls.

here come the questions:

1. should hero raise, call, or fold and why?

2. if hero raises and utg 3 bets what should he do and why?

i think you guys will have fun with this one. lmd and i talked about this for quite awhile before he got bored and hung up on me when i started to get too hysterical.

[Nightwish]

Does hero have the Kh? I think this is very important here.

[brick]

This could be turned into a really cool math problem.
I wish I had time to devote to it.

I think boils down to this: You don't gain much value by raising the turn (you're either way behind or slightly ahead), but you open a big gap for a thinking opponent to exploit. Donk isn't folding so you're not going to gain in that way. Also, your raise for value will cause you to also lose any potential bluff bets on the river.

[Net Warrior]

Call. The pots got 16bb's in it and nobody is folding on the turn. If you're behind, you're outdrawing chances are zip.

[NYplayer]

This is a call down unless river completes a draw and donk comes to life. donk could be on a flush draw, T9, or broadway gutshot. You can't fold because UTG could be on a big draw like KhQh, KhTh or a made hand like AK or AQ that doesn't want you get a free card with KK or QQ with the K or Q of hearts. I wouldn't 3 bet because i don't want to pay 3 bets to AJ, JJ, or AA and face a tough decision when he can still make a move with a big draw.

[hockey1]

Raising is out of the question since hero's almost certainly behind (to AJ or JJ, maybe he's chopping with AK), and there's no chance anybody's folding, and it exposes him to a possible re-raise from UTG if he has JJ. But the pot's too big to fold (although I certainly think folding would be better than raising). Which leaves only one option . . .

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
This could be turned into a really cool math problem.
I wish I had time to devote to it.

I think boils down to this: You don't gain much value by raising the turn (you're either way behind or slightly ahead), but you open a big gap for a thinking opponent to exploit. Donk isn't folding so you're not going to gain in that way. Also, your raise for value will cause you to also lose any potential bluff bets on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me some hand ranges and I can crank out the math pretty quickly.

I think there are 16BB in the pot when it gets to him, assuming donk is going to call down at this point calling down costs 2BB to win 19 (assuming UTG bets the river). I suppose the donk has hearts. I can think of a few possible hands for UTG, but JJ seems most likely, followed by AK and AA. Maybe he has AJ or 88, too. Counting in the last two, hero is drawing dead to 7 of the combinations, has 2-3 outs (depending on whether the K is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or not) to 6 combinations, and is even with 6 combinations.

So, if a heart comes hero is dead, -1BB (assuming he can fold on the end when the flush gets there)
If a heart does not come (and donk does not have something like a pair + flush draw at this point, but that only matters if UTG has AK, too, and donk hits one of his 5 non flushing outs):
6/19 he wins 9.5BB
7/19 he loses 2BB
6/19 combinations he an EV of about -.7BB

SO EV of calling (lets just say the flush is 4:1 to get there) is:
(0.2)(-1) + 0.8 * ((6/19)(9.5) + (7/19)(-2) + (6/19)(-.7)) = +1.43BB

If my wild ass assumptions are right this is a clear call down due to the possibility that UTG has AK. Raising is clearly wrong since you are less than 50% to split (or are drawing to 2-3 outs) and all you are hoping to do by raising is take an extra 1/2BB from the donk. This is +EV enough that the possibility of donk having 5 more outs than his flushing outs can't swing it to -EV, but if hands like 88, A8, etc. are in donk's range that might swing it. Also, even if hero cannot fold on the end when the flush gets there, this is still +EV.

Oh well, this is all pre coffee analysis, and I certainly don't feel comfortable putting these people on hands since I am completely unfamiliar with the game and the players.

[Clarkmeister]

I don't like the 3-bet on the flop.

[Mikey]

I would call the turn, the reason is because if you have the bad player caught in between you and the good player while you have position you can raise the river if the action is the exact same maybe getting the good player to lay down his hand if it is better than yours or tied.

[andyfox]

Why not?