New poster. Flop question

[MadMat]

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b) You got the top pair with good kicker. If you are against trips you still got outs to your flush and sure for your third ace [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

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Just in case you didn't know, if someone has a set and Hero hits a set of Aces, villain will now have a full house [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Oh my mistake [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]. Indeed.

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But you are on the right track, if hero is behind a set here he does have 11 outs to beat it, 9 spades and the other 2 Queens. As mentioned above, if we are suspecting a set we'd rather not see a pair on the board ;-)

Mat

[defence18]

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But you are on the right track, if hero is behind a set here he does have 11 outs to beat it, 9 spades and the other 2 Queens. As mentioned above, if we are suspecting a set we'd rather not see a pair on the board ;-)
Mat


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But the queens would have to come runner-runner to make a full, otherwise your two pair are no good. Seeing as how there are 3 queens left, I don't think we can count them as even 1 full out, let alone 2.

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But you are on the right track, if hero is behind a set here he does have 11 outs to beat it, 9 spades and the other 2 Queens. As mentioned above, if we are suspecting a set we'd rather not see a pair on the board ;-)
Mat


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But the queens would have to come runner-runner to make a full, otherwise your two pair are no good. Seeing as how there are 3 queens left, I don't think we can count them as even 1 full out, let alone 2.

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Except that if he does catch a queen on the turn then the aces become outs too.

[defence18]

Good point. So how many outs oes that equate to?

CAP CAP CAP!! You most likley have the best hand, and if not you are still a favorite to win the pot. Get thier money in their. The UTG caught in the middle is way behind and you want him to contribute as money as possible.

[A_K]

Grunch.

There is a utility available to create hand histories for Pacific (Hand Grabber, I believe. Check the pokertracker website); very handy.

As for your hand, I'd cap, particuarly with UTG donking along. You may be ahead, and even if you're behind, you have lots of outs to a set, two pair, or better.

*grunch*

I'd cap it for sure. Even if you are against a set or two pair (which I don't think you can really assume at this point), you've got a draw to the nut flush. There is a reasonably good chance you already in the lead. Plus, if you make your draw you are almost certain to win the pot.

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Good point. So how many outs oes that equate to?

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If someone has a set we have:
9 to the flush draw
0,425 outs to runner runner full house
((5/47)x(4/46)) x 46

So make that 9,425 outs.

Thanks for all the replies. Will cap from now on. My concern was not enough equity with only three opponents. Villian three betting put me into "OMG, I'm behind..better just call" mode.

There is a utility available to create hand histories for Pacific (Hand Grabber, I believe. Check the pokertracker website); very handy.

I recently purchased Pokertracker and Handgrabber, but Pacific hands didn't work in the Bison converter. Any other converters that may work?

Even with just two other players, if you only count your nut flush draw, every bet you put in the pot is about break even. Since you also have top pair with second kicker, I'd say your equity is much better than just 35% from the flush alone. And since you are more than one-third of a favorite to win this hand, every bet the other players will call benefits you. Easy cap.