Too Passive II

[TaintedRogue]

20/40 Hold Em
Four limpers and I'm on the button with Ts. I limp because the limpers WILL call a raise, as well as the BB. The BB ALWAYS defends his blind for one bet.
Flop; Q,7,2 rainbow.
It's checked to me, I bet BB calls, everyone else folds
Turn: Q
BB cks I bet, BB calls
River: A
BB checks, I check.
How did I do?

[stigmata]

I think you missed an easy value bet on the river.

Your postflop play was just fine. Preflop, this is a must raise however. With 4 limpers you should be raising your TT to build a bigger pot for its set value. If you had 88 here you should also raise. The fact that the big blind is going to call no matter what should make you more likely to raise in this situation rather than just calling. Plus if the flop comes out ugly like A Q 3, just check and fold if its bet, and if its checked to you, and you can take a free card and hope to spike a Ten on the turn.

[stigmata]

I'm taking it for granted that the BB is weak. The BB thinks that the button is just bluffing when checked to, and is calling down with any piece of the flop, perhaps ace high. The lack of check-raise on the turn rules out the queen. Hence 7x, 2x and a lower pocket pair are his most likely hand, why fear the ace?

[W. Deranged]

How is there no pre-flop raise here?

[DanZ]

Why fear the ace - because you mentioned it before the river card came. Why is it all of the sudden unlikely?

A bad queen could easily be played this way. there are not that many overcards to fear, and the last thing a good player would do is to checkraise the turn with a bad queen. Even if your opponent is not a good player, bad players might play the hand the same way for different reasons.

One needs to pay significant respect to callers on a board with no draws.

It's possible a river bet is profitable here, but it's a very close decision. Against a thinking opponent, I would check almost every time unless that opponent had a very strange impression of me.

Dan Z.

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm taking it for granted that the BB is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was based on the only read I had "The BB ALWAYS defends his blind for one bet.".

Perhaps I should of stressed the perhaps in the "perhaps ace high".

Given the weak read, the player is going to check raise the turn if they have a queen. This is what they do, almost every time. The number of times I get called down here by a worse pair is so often, I don't think its close.

Lets make these assumptions. These assumptions really aren't very different from the way many people play:

The BB is weak.
He will play any 2 in the BB for a raise.
He will call down with any piece of the flop.
He will call down with ace high on this flop.
He will check-raise the turn with a Q most of the time.
He will not check-raise the river if he has an ace.

Then we have a value bet. The number of hands that we beat is greater than the number of hands that beat us.