Questionable 5-10 hand - semibluff?

Ulysses · #1 08-13-2004, 04:50 PM

I just remembered this one. We're playing 3-handed. It has been pretty aggressive with very few showdowns seen.

Button - $1300
Me/SB - $1800
BB - $1000

Button opens for $40. He opens for $40 w/ any hand he's going to play here. I call w/ QdJd. BB folds.

Flop Js9h7d ($90 pot)

I check. Button bets $70. I checkraise to $250. He thinks a while and calls.

Turn 2dJs9h7d ($590 pot)

He has about $1000 left. I push.

Comments?

pilamsolo · #2 08-13-2004, 05:28 PM

Wow, I have no idea where you are in this hand, did you? Does his call of the flop c/r mean your behind or does he think you're trying to blow him off his hand? Generally I would say that if you're behind then it isn't by much and I would expect him to fold to your push. But then again playing 3 handed is so player specific he might call with second pair hoping to catch you on a bluff. I'm curious as to where you thought you were in the hand.

sam h · #3 08-13-2004, 05:34 PM

I think this is a pretty good push, as your opponent will be hard pressed to call with just one pair. Plus, your other options look bad.

Which brings me to the flop play. I'm not really sure, but I think a pretty good argument can be made for flat calling and leading about $150 on good turn cards. Obviously, you will take it down a lot with that CR. The problem is when he calls you are in a world of [censored] out of position on most turn cards. That 2d is one of the best turn cards you could see, and still you're in a dicey spot.

I'm still not sure what the best option is, but I think its a good hand to discuss because playing these situations well, IMHO, is what really separates the good shorthanded NL players.

Rococo · #4 08-13-2004, 05:34 PM

I like it.

I think that you can safely rule out 8T, J9, 79 or an overpair, all of which likely would have drawn a large reraise on the flop.

Pushing on the turn should force out overcards, draws and probably AJ as well.

Given the possible straight draw on the board, calling your reraise on the flop with a set of 9s or 7s on the flop would be a questionable play.

Your hand is good a high percentage of the time. Also, if you check the turn, you have a hell of a time calling a pot-sized bet if he gets frisky.

Zag · #5 08-13-2004, 05:43 PM

Well, you are playing for 130 BBs, which is an awful lot on which to rest TP3K. On the other hand, short-handed, you have to increase your hand values quite a bit. I would say that it plays like TPTK on a full table, or even like an overpair.

That said, you have check-raised and been called. This is why you would like to be playing a TP hand only for 50 BBs or so -- you'd be all in now. Not knowing your opponent, I'll give him these ratios:

20% Big hand, hoping for you to blast off your chips (99, 8T)
10% A better jack, but will lay it down to a big bet (AJ, KJ)
10% A better jack, but will call a big bet (AJ and too much cohones)
10% A hand that can only beat a bluff, hoping you are: (55, 57)
40% Some sort of a draw, combined with a piece of the flop (9T, 78, A9, 88)
10% Hopeless cards, but hoping you will be scared by the call and check, allowing him to bluff you off the hand

If you were both a lot deeper, you would want to make a bet that just barely doesn't price in the draw plus a piece category -- something like a half to two-thirds pot bet. However, this would just about make him pot-committed. So, I agree that a bet here should probably be a push.

So the question depends a lot on how YOU would set those ratios for this player, this game, etc. If you check, then you risk failing to make him fold a better J, being bluffed off, or being outdraw. If you bet, you risk charging into the cannons, or at least into the light guns.

With the odds I have placed, I think you are better off to check and then call a game-theory-correct amount of the time. However, if you decrease the first and increase the last, just a little, then check-call is a big money maker. If he really does have only 2-5 outs, then you would have to decrease the first by quite a bit to make betting out correct.

Hmmm. The other factor, which I only just noticed, is that you have just picked up a flush draw. So against a set you have 8 outs, and against a straight you have 9. This really ameliorates the downside of pushing into the cannons, because you still have some pot equity no matter what. I guess I like the push.

Richie Rich · #6 08-13-2004, 06:29 PM

I like the push, and I don't.
Question is, when you went all-in, did you want him to call?

Cheap Shot · #7 08-13-2004, 06:40 PM

I see no possible way the 2 of diamonds can help his hand unless he holds something like Ad9d. But if your hand was good on the flop it is almost certainly good on the turn. Push seems fine. I would expect for him to lay down his hand. But since its a hand worth posting perhaps he called?

cornell2005 · #8 08-13-2004, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the push, and I don't.
Question is, when you went all-in, did you want him to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

no way he wanted him to call. mostly because when he calls, it defines his hand as more likely than not ahead at the moment.

re: the hand, it seems to me that pushing and check calling seem pretty equal. i think bet and c/r suck. thoughts?

Ulysses · #9 08-13-2004, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the push, and I don't.
Question is, when you went all-in, did you want him to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would I want him to call with? Unless I think he has exactly JT and will call with that, I can't see liking getting called here.

Rococo · #10 08-13-2004, 07:28 PM

I agree that check-raise is terrible. I much prefer pushing to check-calling. I think that this is a situation where both El Diablo and his opponent likely will have a tough time calling a large bet.

As a result, this is a rare situation where Diablo may be better off being first to act.

Carpe diem. Push.