Overcall with the 2nd Nuts?

[Harv72b]

Raise preflop. KQs plays fairly well multiway. It plays even better in a shorthanded pot. I'd just as soon not give someone the excuse to get into the pot with A3s or A9o when playing this hand. Besides which, if the table is that loose, you'll probably get your multiway pot anyhow...and most (if not all) of the callers will be incorrect to do so.

The whole hand plays differently if you'd raised preflop, but for the sake of argument we'll just go with your line.

Flop: Raise. Two reasons--first of all, a lot of hands are going to call 2 on this flop. Any decent heart will, a lot of pocket pairs will (thinking you're just isolating on the short stack and/or raising with two overs + heart draw), and given the way many 5/10 opponents I've seen play, something as lame as two overs or a gutshot will. This is exactly the kind of flop where players look to find a reason to stay in, and many of them will.

The added benefit is that the BB is almost out of chips. A good percentage of the time, especially if he's on an overpair and/or flush draw of his own, he will just 3-bet and get his last $5 in the pot, allowing you to then call and look for overcallers, then donk the turn because you're representing a weak made hand that's scared of the flush potential, and not the actual flush. Not that anyone ever believes you flopped a flush, anyway.

The instant the BB raises preflop, you should know that he's going all in on this hand. He's only got $15 behind, so it really makes little difference to him at that point. After you flop a monster, you should be looking to let him get his remaining chips into the middle as quickly as possible, so that you can control the action on the later streets and allow those drawing dead to tag along til the river.

Again, given the way you played this on the flop, I think you're probably better off just going for overcalls on the turn. When the Q shows up, coupled with you calling the flop & raising the turn, there are fewer hands which will convince themselves to call 2 BBs than there would have been on the flop (for 2 SBs). At this point the only hands which would call a raise are real draws (T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus, more likely J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus, OESD) or made hands. Backdoor draws are caput, gutshots are far more likely to give up, small pocket pairs now have to worry about the hearts and a scary overcard, and nobody has two overcards anymore.

So, yeah, I think it is an interesting choice to make on the turn, but I think you kinda played yourself into this corner. Also, lest we forget, the pot was already big on the flop (11.4 SBs when it got to you), so there really wasn't much call for slowplaying a strong but potentially vulnerable hand.

[naphand]

Good good, plenty of food for thought.

I actually believe, of course, that it is correct ot raise hands like this PF. I do not do it all the time, I suspect the reason I did not do so here was that I was running really horrible and was sick of missing Flops, catching bits and missing yadda-yadda-non-optimal etc. or winning small pots/losing big ones.

People's take on how the other players will react is different to mine. I have found players very likely to fold flops like this to a raise and I figured with BB going all-in I really wanted some extra callers to max the EV.

You are correct though when you say this would have been more easily achieved by a raise PF, the bigger pot would have made calls more likely. BB helped me out by raising so the situation is the same as it may otherwise have been. So PF is irrelevant for this hand - it was raised, so let's put that away now.

I have seen players in these games call single bets with as little as 1 overcard, bottom pair or backdoor draws but rarely 2 cold without a stronger hand. Raising this flop will probably shut out the two limpers and leave me with little extra $$ at SD; I have to believe a call is much more likely to win a bigger pot as the limpers will see BB's bet as a continuation bet or the last chuck of an all-in player. If I raise they have to think hard about whether to call and can fold correctly.

[ QUOTE ]
Not raising the flop did not give you a chance to get your unknown players further tied to the pot in the event that they had a lone or pair hand that is essentially drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is, should i try to get two players to make a pretty big mistake or somewhere from 0-2 players to make a huge mistake/correctly fold. A key component is that BB is certain to call and may even 3-bet if I raise - but he may be 3-betting me only. Raising is great if BB 3-bets and they others overcall, but I do not see this happening very often. I want two players in drawing dead who can improve on the Turn/River and commit extra BB. Raising is likely to fail to achieve the extra BB you are suggesting, and looks greedy to me - any calls here are large mistakes already and very profitable for me.

[ QUOTE ]
You're operating under the assumption that these guys are going to overcall you on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I was hoping they might improve on the Turn and call and/or feel more confident the flush was not out. A raise is probably too much to expect so I am pretty much controlling the shots, surely it is to my advantage for the limpers to see BB continuation betting, rather than me playing aggressively. I agree this starts to smack of slowplaying and there is no reason for this with the pot so big. But I really do not see these guys calling 2 bets each with this board.

I am glad people have expressed opinions that players at $5/$10 will make calls as bad as this, I have seen plenty of it but I cannot say so for flush boards.

[naphand]

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This is exactly the kind of flop where players look to find a reason to stay in, and many of them will.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Make the flop 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] only and I certainly agree.

The Turn can be good in so many ways - a lot of the deck is either either overcards or cards that complete draws or open them up. Almost any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will call a 4-sooted board. I cannot protect my hand from A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Hmmmm - I am still not convinced by any argument here for raising either Flop or Turn but I accept the logic put forward. Unfortunately I have not been able to make any concrete conclusions.

As it happens, I raised the Turn and both limpers folded.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
As it happens, I raised the Turn and both limpers folded.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that they weren't calling one bet either.

[Scotch78]

If there was a limper in front of you, I'm okay limping, but if I'm opening I will generally do so for a raise. My thinking is this: if one limper was enough to encourage over-limping, then the saw flop percentage would be higher than 30-35%, as such a table will often have an EP/MP limper.

Postflop, I think raising either street is just dumb. On the flop you have three potential overcallers. This means that you will probably have an overcaller on the turn and possibly even all the way to showdown. That's a ton of dead money. On the other hand, raising may get 2 SB out of one person, two if you're lucky, but it hurts your expectation on the big streets by simultaneously thinning and alarming the field. Furthermore, raising the flop does not take away the odds for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a set, and probably won't get either to fold incorrectly.

On the turn you still can't put the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a set to a lose-lose decision, you can't earn any more money from the bettor, and you still have multiple potential cold-callers. Furthermore, if one of them has a queen or a pair to go with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], then you will probably get another bet on the river if they never have to call a raise.

Scott

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
and you still have multiple potential cold-callers

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed too late, but this should say over-callers.

Scott

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising either street is just dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you, for all the reasons you give but, there are some weighty opinions against us. I often state that you can only win a good pot against good 2nd-best hands and draws that miss, so calling to keep people is not good poker, it feels so fishy. I just do not believe players will easily call two bets with this board, as has been suggested, this is not $1/$2. Games differ a lot across sites though.

My calls look like, well, not much at all and with BB all-in the rest probably think they have some kind of chance unless I convince them otherwise. I WANT to look fishy... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Harv72b]

The big difference between this hand and ones where you want to keep as many opponents as possible in the hand is that here, your hand can be drawn out on. Well, that and the fact that the pot is already big. This is not one of those cases where you flopped quads and it'll take a miracle of Biblical proportions for someone to outdraw you...another heart gives the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] the win, the board pairing means you could be losing to what was then a set or two pair...you get the drift. Will the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fold before the river? Of course not, never--but an opponent will put in as many bets as you can force on him with it up until the river. A set? A set isn't folding regardless of action, and you have the added benefit that he'll probably make a crying call on the river UI (the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] won't often, especially since he's already going to see your hand due to the all in player).

You can't protect your hand from anyone who could draw out on you, save two pair. But, same as if you catch a set on a 2-suited flop, you don't mind so much because you're still going to make money. You're the favorite. The key is to get as much money into the pot as possible when you are a considerable favorite, which you certainly are here (even the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] only has 7 outs against you).

Put another way, if you'd flopped top set, you'd have raised, right? Even though you knew that someone might have flopped a flush, or might be drawing to one? And even though you knew that neither of these hands would ever fold? Look, nobody is going to believe you flopped a flush, any more than the guy holding aces ever believes you flopped a set. Least of all when you immediately raise a bettor on your right--mid hearts will call 2 because they reason that you wouldn't have raised unless you were trying to protect a more vulnerable hand (overpair, set, baby flush). Overpairs, from time to time even overcards, won't fold because they'll convince themselves that you're raising to isolate with a small overpair or flush draw or whatever. All of which I already said.

Not raising the flop here is a pretty significant mistake which will cost you bets in the long run. Your opponents can't make mistakes unless you give them the opportunity to (this also applies to raising preflop here, btw).

[SoSo]

u not only have a the 2nd nuts but the 2nd and 3rd nuts, so really only the ace and jack are going to be interested. i would raise as there coming a long for the ride if the table is, as u discribe loose.

[W. Deranged]

1 important thing that I'm not sure anyone has mentioned yet is the fact that additional [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s coming are doubly bad for you:

1. They could mean you lose.
2. They will often kill all of your action if you don't lose.

You have two big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, and so if you get a lot of action when a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, you are almost certainly toast, as you are almost certainly not getting heavy action from the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or lower.

If you raise a short-chipped guy on the flop, your opponents aren't going to be all that scared I don't think. Pairs, the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and maybe even things like AxJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will give you action. The pot is big and many hands that are good enough for one bet will consider themselves good enough for two.

Waiting to raise the turn absolutely will shut out all action. People forget this way too much. Oftentimes raising the flop seems bad because it will shut out action, but the fact is that opponents are much, much more likely to call two small bets on the flop than two small bets on the turn, and so raising the flop very often is the best course of action when you want to encourage continued action while not missing value.