AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday

stevepa · #1 09-05-2005, 11:05 PM

I'm at a little over 3500 at 25/50 blinds. I've been fairly aggressive and people haven't really been playing back. However, this is the main villain's first hand at the table. UTG+1 and 2 have been here a while, are semi-loose but pretty passive.

Hero UTG (3615)
UTG+1 (1720)
UTG+2 (1735)
Villain CO (3210)

Preflop:
Hero raises to T150 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Villain raises to T3210 (all-in)
Hero...?

Steve

Rduke55 · #2 09-05-2005, 11:08 PM

Fold.
It looks like it may be JJ or something but you're doing well and I wouldn't risk it on what's probably a coinflip at best.

runout_mick · #3 09-06-2005, 12:04 AM

If you think he has JJ, why fold? I'd be all in in a heartbeat if I put him on JJ, dead money in the pot...

Read dependent. would this player do this with AA or KK? If you answer "yes", or "I don't know", it may be a fold.

Otherwise push...

PancakeBoy · #4 09-06-2005, 07:01 AM

I'm surprised at how manny people want to get all their money on a COINFLIIP. This is precisely what you want to avoid early in the tournamentn with a big stack. You accumulated a nice juicy stack and you can use it to gain chips in WAY less risky situations, stealing blinds, raising out players on flops, etc.

If you had 22 and raised on the button with 3k chips at 25/50 blinds, and sb folds and big blind flips his cards and goes all in with AKs and it folds back to you....do you want to call there? heh. it's a coinflip...!!

I think this is a terrible mentality to have: "well u gotta win a coinflip so might as well take one when it comes!" It is generally true that you have to win flips to win tournaments but that does not mean you use that as an excuse to risk your nice juicy bigstack early on in a tournament!!! Fold!

phredd · #5 09-12-2005, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he has JJ, why fold? I'd be all in in a heartbeat if I put him on JJ, dead money in the pot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm not understanding something crucial here. Your hand is a slight dog to JJ. Why would you call an all-in and risk crippling yourself knowing you are behind? Your edge in this hand depends on the times villain makes this move WITHOUT a pocket pair, does it not? I'm a newb, so I feel I must really be missing something about this comment....

AceHiStation · #6 09-12-2005, 02:45 PM

This is an easy decision for me depending on my mood. I was 90% sure of his holdings(mid PP) when reading the post and would fold this 90% of the time. Only reason I consider a call here is if I end up saying "I'll double up or I'll play cash games". I've made this call before, but usually I like a fold here.

woodguy · #7 09-12-2005, 02:51 PM

When figuring out your edge you need to look at the odds of winning the hand vs. the price the pot is giving you.

In this case:

If we assume that UTG+1,UTG+2 and the blinds fold the pot will have 3735 in it and it will cost you 3060 to call, so the pot is laying you 1.22 -1.

If you put the raiser squarely on JJ, you are a 46-54 dog or 1.17 against to win.

Because 1.22>1.17 , basically the pot is laying you a small edge IF you put the raiser squarely on a pair.

You have to allow some other hands in your range, which makes it a very easy call.

So yes, if there is a significant edge, it lies in the villian doing this without a pair, which is not unheard of since there is 525 when the pot gets to the villian, he may be making a move to pick up the dead $$$ with a squeeze play. Those who say he absolutely has to have a pair here haven't played enough poker.

Others will also argue that you will significantly outstack the rest of the table if you win, so that is worth taking "coin flip" for.

Regards,
Woodguy

LethalRose · #8 09-06-2005, 12:08 AM

push

#9 09-06-2005, 12:16 AM

Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

TomHimself · #10 09-06-2005, 12:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

[/ QUOTE ]yes it is