Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?

[JP Rocks]

I really didnt think that I had an edge here (ignore the OP numbers- it was late), on the flop I figured that this was an even EV at best call to make. The deciding factor was the size of the pot- I'm sure Ed Miller said that when faced with a marginal decision, call in a big pot but fold in a small pot. I really dont think that this hand is worth a raise or a check raise in this spot.

[Niediam]

It's not marginal.

Best situation - no overpair and no flush draw:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 4h 430 52.44 378 46.10 12 1.46 0.528
Js Ac 79 9.63 681 83.05 60 7.32 0.129
Ks Ad 114 13.90 646 78.78 60 7.32 0.172
9c Td 137 16.71 671 81.83 12 1.46 0.171

2nd best situation - no flush draw but there is an overpair:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 4h 258 31.46 548 66.83 14 1.71 0.319
Ks Kc 461 56.22 345 42.07 14 1.71 0.566
Ad Kh 72 8.78 734 89.51 14 1.71 0.092
9c Td 15 1.83 791 96.46 14 1.71 0.023

Flush draw is out there but no overpair:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 4h 255 31.10 558 68.05 7 0.85 0.313
Ac Qc 90 10.98 691 84.27 39 4.76 0.131
Ah Kh 44 5.37 737 89.88 39 4.76 0.075
Td 9d 392 47.80 421 51.34 7 0.85 0.480

The dreaded flush draw + overpair:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 4h 161 19.63 649 79.15 10 1.22 0.199
Jc Jh 276 33.66 534 65.12 10 1.22 0.340
Ah Kh 83 10.12 727 88.66 10 1.22 0.104
Td 9d 290 35.37 520 63.41 10 1.22 0.357

Here is starts to look poor. If you look at the difference in EV between hands two and four it would appear that raising/calling is the same EV if the odds of a flush draw being out is 50/50. However there is no reason to think that the odds are 50/50 that a flush draw is out. The fact that there are two diamonds on the board makes it less likely of course that anybody started with diamonds - in addition you have one of the diamonds in your hand.

But even if you knew for sure that the odds of a flush draw being out was even money id still raise. You have the advantage of seeing if that diamond hits or not. If you make your hand by the river but no diamond falls you know you can jam away. But if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the rived you know you may have to slow down if there is any serious action.

[JP Rocks]

Cheers for running the numbers. I put in the actual cards I was up against, and it was pretty much the situation you described with between 20 and 30% PE.

I actually came fairly close to folding, but this was just the NL part of my brain talking. I guess this is what he means in SSHE about being agressive with strong draws in big pots.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1688 % 27.75% 01.42% { 4d4h }
Hand 2: 44.1879 % 43.85% 00.34% { QcQs }
Hand 3: 11.8256 % 11.12% 00.71% { Ac2c }
Hand 4: 14.8176 % 12.97% 01.85% { random }

[DCWildcat]

Ack, I'm horribly, horribly wrong. Niediam is the man.

[sunek]

In my opinion your hand should have been folded pre-flop since your chance of hitting a set is 1:7.5, you have only one limper, bad position after the flop and a LAG to act after you.

Your play after the flop is fine though.

sunek