PartyPoker software: trends, biases,etc.

[balkii]

you are close about the turn. but its the Ace that comes up too frequently. you and Turning Stone Pro should hook up, because he had a whole strategy based on the Turn-Ace-Adjustment theory

[krimson]

Maybe you need to read "Secrets of Party Poker Revealed!"

Full of great advice like not raising Aces and whatnot on Party.

[OrangeKing]

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Hello all...I did a search and have not found a thread that discusses the common biases/trends etc. on the Party software. From my experience, when one person has a pocket pair, very often 2 or more have pocket pairs.It also seems as if Queen comes up on the turn frequently. Not too mention how often the river rewards fish. If this has been covered please direct me to the thread. THANKS [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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If I was at home I'd reply with my now standardized response. But I'm at work and don't have it, so I'll just say you're wrong, and the distribution is normal (no trends, no biases). Have a nice day!

[David]

lmao, nh

[Synergistic Explosions]

You can kick ass at Party once you understand the CLUMPING bias.

[mattyG]

I have never heard of clumping bias...sounds like it may be a joke...but wtf I am always interested to hear peoples views on this subj

[GrannyMae]

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There have been MANY posts summarizing analyses of 10,000s or 100,000s of hands. (Here's a thread summarizing the board cards for 230,000 hands that I recently looked up to settle a bet with a friend)

Such large databases are not surprising: any long term Party player (i.e. years) has had the opportunity to compile such a database--though many don't seem to botehr. (I have almost every Party hand history I've ever played or observed on CD-R--though a few were lost to various glitches. MANY Party players are more meticulous than I am) A dataminer could compile such a database in a month or so (depending on the game and stakes) using nothing more than the normal Party client and a program like PokerOffice or PokerTracker -- or a program they wrote themselves (there are open source programs that make the code for interpreting hand histories publically available) A dataminer simply needs to open full tables (or whatever criteria they choose) periodically as they watch TV, chat on the phone, do the laundry, etc.

Yet, I can't recall seeing any player with a large database raise any verifiable objections. A few posters have claimed to have databases with demonstrated anomalies, but none of them have seemed remotely believable to me. They won't share their data or post statistical summaries that we could test in any way. They just make bald sweeping assertions or drop dark unsubstantiable hints

Why do you suppose that so many people who have logs of tens or hundreds of thousands of hands, and can analyze them with a few clicks and some headwork DON'T complain that the hands or boards are rigged, but many people who don't have such databases or analyze them rigorously are so sure that there are obvious anomalies? One hypothesis is that longterm players are morons, no matter how many thousands of dollars they've won. Another theory might be that everyone with a few 10,000s of playes and observed hands under their belt has "found the patterns" and are silently winning $$$ even if they aren't very good. (In which case, those who think they've spotted the trends would be foolish not to record and analyze 10k's of hands to join the gravy train).

Some of us (myself included) are even dim enough to analyze their large databases in multiple ways and find no bias. Heck there are many books by professional players who've made a lot of money over the decades (in card rooms and online) and all of them are based on math that assumes the sites play a fair game. We are obviously wrong, since even players with a fraction of our recorded hands see the "obvious" patterns.

Take your pick; take your chances. Personally, I can't see why anyone would play a room that they felt was rigged, unless they could turn it to their advantage. Wouldn't untold wealth await the player who can spot a genuine bias?

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