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#41
11-22-2005, 11:12 PM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
your estimation that you will get EXACTLY 1 caller 60% of the time on a bet is just absurd. [/ QUOTE ] This was an example, not my estimation. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Does middle pair call your bet, but not bet it? Does top pair only call this bet and not raise? Does bottom pair call your bet, but not someone elses? [/ QUOTE ] I'm quoting these questions not to short-change your POV, but because - correct me if I'm wrong - it is the main crux of your argument. [/ QUOTE ] This is not the crux of my argument. The crux of my argument was: A bet here is a poor semibluff. There are better ways to get value from this flop than betting out. I've said all I can say and there are better poker players than me, who put forward both sides of the argument in the above Qtip link. Enjoy. 
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#42
11-22-2005, 11:41 PM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
There is a post by The Daver in my thread in SS which sums up nicely why I was for a bet, without doing the math or EV calcs-side of it. Not that the math isn't important, but he makes some good points.
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#43
11-22-2005, 11:45 PM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
Is seems like every person advocating a bet is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Is this a semi- bluff or a value bet? Make up your mind. [/ QUOTE ] Why? The reason I bet this flop is because every outcome of it is at least neutral EV except when the player to my left raises. If I take down the pot, great. If I get 1 caller, I set myself up to take down the pot on the turn. He could be just taking one off on the flop, have a draw, or have a made hand. A read would determine my turn play, but it is probably a bet. Great. If I get 2 callers, I consider this about neutral EV. If I get 3 callers, it was a good value bet. Great. You may be right in that a bet here is not correct, but miles makes a great point that your thinking of "If everybody calls, we just lost value because we could have gotten more with a C/R" requires not only that someone bets the flop, but that the player on your left bets the flop. I don't see that happening. If anyone bets the flop, it's likely to be the last to act, which is exactly what you don't want. A lot of junk will call here for 1 but not 2 bets.
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#44
11-22-2005, 11:53 PM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
There is a post by The Daver in my thread in SS which sums up nicely why I was for a bet, without doing the math or EV calcs-side of it. Not that the math isn't important, but he makes some good points. [/ QUOTE ] I thought Dave's reply to your thread in ss was one of the better replies i have read in awhile.
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#45
11-23-2005, 12:10 AM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
Shillx's post nailed it... http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=2881730
I think this one is close depending on how aggressive the players are and what range of hands they would call with.
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#46
11-23-2005, 01:06 AM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
There is a post by The Daver in my thread in SS which sums up nicely why I was for a bet, without doing the math or EV calcs-side of it. Not that the math isn't important, but he makes some good points. [/ QUOTE ] Is that the one about betting is fun?
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#47
11-23-2005, 01:08 AM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
There is a post by The Daver in my thread in SS which sums up nicely why I was for a bet, without doing the math or EV calcs-side of it. Not that the math isn't important, but he makes some good points. [/ QUOTE ] His response is great, but make sure you read Entity's posts in that Qtip thread. I think I'm going to be checking these more often, which surprises me. This thread transformed from a realatively simple one about a turn donk vs. c/r vs. c/c into a classic. Nh, all who've posted here.
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#49
11-23-2005, 01:35 AM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is seems like every person advocating a bet is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Is this a semi- bluff or a value bet? Make up your mind. [/ QUOTE ] Why? The reason I bet this flop is because every outcome of it is at least neutral EV except when the player to my left raises. [/ QUOTE ] Don't get me wrong. For the last time, I'm not saying never bet a flush draw OOP. In this situation, on this flop, I'm never betting. [ QUOTE ] If I take down the pot, great. [/ QUOTE ] Super. IMO you pulled off a miracle semibluff into 4 opponents. If every on of these guys folds, I'd start donking more flops like this with any two cards at all. [ QUOTE ] If I get 1 caller, I set myself up to take down the pot on the turn. He could be just taking one off on the flop, have a draw, or have a made hand. A read would determine my turn play, but it is probably a bet. Great. [/ QUOTE ] IMO you are just as likely to have 1 raiser, as 1 caller. With one caller, your flop bet was negative EV. As for the turn, you are now making another neutral to negative EV bet to 'try' to take down this pot. I know people make loose flop calls, but what do you expect villian to call the flop with? [ QUOTE ] If I get 2 callers, I consider this about neutral EV. [/ QUOTE ] OK. [ QUOTE ] If I get 3 callers, it was a good value bet. Great. [/ QUOTE ] But could you have got more value? [ QUOTE ] You may be right in that a bet here is not correct, but miles makes a great point that your thinking of "If everybody calls, we just lost value because we could have gotten more with a C/R" requires not only that someone bets the flop, but that the player on your left bets the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Two things. 1. When OOP, there is no other place from which a bet can come, other than on your left. 2. I don't care where the freakin' bet comes from, as long as it has one or more callers before it gets back to me. None of these questions/answers require any response, I'm just presenting my side of the coin and I appreciate the dialogue. All I wanted to say with any of my posts is: In this particular situation, on this particular flop, with this many villians, completely OOP, with a less than nut flush, with no overcards to the flop, in an unraised pot - I don't bet out.
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#50
11-23-2005, 05:21 AM
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Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal
[ QUOTE ]
i said if i were to act first in a 5-way field [/ QUOTE ] At what point do you think it is not profitable to lead this flop? Would you lead in a 4-way field with a 4 SB pot?
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