A6s and middle pair, raggedy board

[robertsonjohn]

I think this is very read-dependent. If you think the CO is the type to raise overs AND check the turn unimproved for the free card, then this is a good play. Otherwise, I'd probably check fold the flop.

I don't know if you can have that sort of read on him after only 40 hands (although his aggression rating suggests that it is), but I do know that 40 hands isn't enough to judge his PF raise standards to be so strict that you're only reverse dominating AK. I have a PF raise percentage of around 9% and it's not uncommon for me to go 40 hands without ANY PF raises when I'm running cold. If his range is AA-JJ, AK & AQ, you are a slight favorite to be ahead - if you take out the AQ, he is a slightly better favorite, so your advantage is going to come from how easy he is to read.

[Aaron W.]

Oooh... more betting into the preflop raiser.

Eh, yeah, and this post and comment by MrWookie were very apropos:

[ QUOTE ]
I used to think about betting into preflop raisers to protect my 2nd pair or whatever, but I don't think it's a good plan. You are hoping he raises a hand worse than yours, and most opponents won't do that. They call if you're ahead, and they raise if they have you whooped, at least if we don't have TPTK or better. I'm starting to check these more, evaluate the action, and typically call and reevaluate on the turn.

In the hand example you cite, I don't like the flop bet one bit. KK is NOT raising us very often, and he doesn't have AT often enough relative to the times he has AQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Felipe]

.blindpost.

I don't like the use of "I" and "we" interchangably, it confuses me.

The flop play is bad IMO. You should c/c here and try to hit your 5 (4?) outs.

Honestly - why are you betting the flop? i'm not nagging, i'm curious.

felipe

[ QUOTE ]
.blindpost.

I don't like the use of "I" and "we" interchangably, it confuses me.

[/ QUOTE ]

we is sure I wouldn't confuse her before you asked. Sorry...


[ QUOTE ]
The flop play is bad IMO. You should c/c here and try to hit your 5 (4?) outs.

Honestly - why are you betting the flop? i'm not nagging, i'm curious.

felipe

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i'm sure you can see the my other response after your blindpost, but to isolate myself with the pfr and protect my 2nd pair. There are some examples in SSH, but this doesn't seem to fit. Also, pfr is a rocky TAP, which doesn't exactly work well here.

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

you do not really want to find a A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn, so you are protecting very few outs, actually. Probably no more than 3 or 3.5. When CO really raises so few hands, you are only ahead of AK at the moment. Check/call is not an option with these few outs. So I agree with the bet, hope he raises. If there is a reraise I would get away from the hand immediately.
I wouldn't do the same trick on the turn though but check/fold UI. Especially when you have cold-callers. You might be reverse dominated yourself if you hit an A then.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't protect outs. You buy outs, or you protect your hand by inducing people to fold incorrectly or call incorrectly.

Ck/calling is good here. What will betting do? You can't hope to fold people at these stakes. You bet into a preflop raiser? why? so he can get heads up with your measly pair of 6's?????? that's nuts. All he needs is pocket eights and you're done! you can't bet here. Even if he has KQclubs, he can raise and get everybody to cold call. Now you are paying 2 bets to see the turn instead of one. And the pot has gotten very big, and you don't have a strong hand. I'm not convinced that betting is good here.

If there is a re-raise i'd get out immediately
You have to check your pot odds here. Folding incorrectly costs you money. Those 2 sm-bets that you put in by raising no longer belong to you (or belong to the "hero") they belong to the pot, and you have to re-calculate your pot odds here.

If i hit an ace, i'm betting it hard. "i could be reverse dominated". is weak-tight thinking.

When CO really raises so few hands, you are only ahead of AK at the moment.

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88, AJs, AQs, KQs, ATs are all hands that he could raise with. That's only 11/169 possible hands. we are ahead of 4/11 of his raising with our pair of 6's.

c/c is good here.

[Felipe]

it is a big pot. It is likely that he will bet his cards on the flop. Most players do when they PFR and they get checked too. It seems like it's a built in characteristic of our species.

If he raises you, and you get heads up with him, you're likely in deep sh*t!!! If he's passive and raises - that's alarm bells in my head.

So many cards in the deck hurt you. I think betting is bad here. If you can call the flop getting 11:1, that's +ev. I think betting could be +ev, but c/c is greater ev

Say you c/c the flop. turn comes a 6. You can bet, and have him raise if he's got overpair. If he doesn't have an overpair (say he's got overcards), he wasn't going to raise on the flop to your bet anyways! So c/c is better, IMO.

I'm not conviced that getting heads up with a passive rock is a good idea, after he PFR.

[PokerSparky]

Something must be up with the converter, because there are way more than 4.5 SB in the pot on the flop.

I would like this play a lot more if CO was a LAG and the board didn't offer so many draws.

I think I just check/call the flop hoping to make two pair or trips.

The turn could be a tough decision if it bricks with something like the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Good points. I see now that betting is a bad idea. And I trusted the converter saying 4.5SB are in the pot on the flop. This is obviously not so. The bot is big. So I might be getting 14:1 or 15:1 (didn't count them exactly) for a 3outer which is acceptable. So I agree with check/calling now.
Everybody hoooray for check/calling!!!