Calling all Sample Size Nazi's

Killer Man's Son · #1 07-09-2005, 06:25 PM

"Sample Size Nazi's". Haha, I love that term.

Anyway, I need to know what the forum's consensus is on the number of hands at any given limit (NL is not a concern here) for one to have a decent idea of how they stand.

I have lurked for a while and have a pretty good idea, but I have also seen a wide range of numbers. So, if you have been playing regularly for a while (at least a year or two), how many hands should I play at any given limit to determine where I stand?

Thanks in advance.

balkii · #2 07-09-2005, 06:39 PM

Listen, heres the thing: If you can't spot the sucker ...

NO amount of hands will ever give you an "accurate" idea of your winrate. Games get tougher/softer, you get better/worse. Knowing "where you stand" is positively useless.

If you look around the table and see players making mistakes, then you'll beat the game. If you keep studying and working, you'll beat the game for more.

BottlesOf · #3 07-09-2005, 07:44 PM

It depends what you mean by "where you stand"

Killer Man's Son · #4 07-09-2005, 07:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It depends what you mean by "where you stand"

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I want to know whether or not I should consider myself a winning player or not (I do BTW). Most importantly, I want to know what type of numbers I should see before moving up to the next level.

SoftcoreRevolt · #5 07-09-2005, 08:24 PM

10K will give you a good idea of how many hands you play and how aggressively you play them.

ds914 · #6 07-09-2005, 10:08 PM

But if he's looking strictly at his win/loss rate (which is what I think he's probably doing), 10K hands is not nearly enough to determine whether or not he's a winning player.

Killer Man's Son · #7 07-10-2005, 06:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But if he's looking strictly at his win/loss rate (which is what I think he's probably doing), 10K hands is not nearly enough to determine whether or not he's a winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're correct ds914. I'm looking for the minimum number of hands I should play at a given limit to determine if I have beaten that limit and it is time to move up. 10K sounds a little small to me as well. Would 20K give a good indication?

Thanks.

GuyOnTilt · #8 07-10-2005, 07:40 AM

50k is a good starting point. 100k is better. 250k is decent.

GoT

Killer Man's Son · #9 07-10-2005, 07:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
50k is a good starting point. 100k is better. 250k is decent.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks GoT. Exactly what I was looking for.

helpmeout · #10 07-10-2005, 08:30 AM

It depends on a lot of factors.

If you are playing low limits and the money is insignificant then just move up when you have 300BB for the next limit. I think I played 2k hands at 2/4.

As you move up and the money starts to mean something then you will want to play more hands.

At 5/10 6max i played about 10k hands but was running at 5b/100 i made the jump got raped and moved back down.

I think I played 30k hands before I made the jump again my winrate around 2.5 or so.

I played about 30k hands before I moved up from 10/20 6max.

But of course it depends on how well you are going, if you are running hot or you just feel confident that you have a significant edge over other players.

Are you a pro? If so you will need to play a lot more hands at particular limits because you will need a much larger buffer.

If you want to know if you are a winning player then it depends on your winrate and your sample size.

A general guide might be (this is just my opinion)

25k hands at 5bb/100 = likely a winner
50k at 2bb/100 = likely a winner
100k at 1BB/100 = likely a winner

Of course these figures assume you were a winning player at lower limits.