Not sure about his one...

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not playing scared.

Assuming he checkraises me with 88, 77, KQ, and AQ I have a weighted average of 10 outs and 21% equity. I lose 1.16BB's everytime he checkraises me, equity wise. He also reduces my effective odds to 3.75-1 when he pulls off a checkraise, and I'm a 4.6-1 dog to his check-ranging range. So by betting this turn I manage to turn the nut flush draw with overcards into a losing play.

Assuming he calls with a worse hand (which he won't do a whole lot of, let's assume worse aces) with 3 outs with 2% equity I gain 0.96 BB's.

When he calls me with a pair, I lose 0.348 BB's.

I'll let you come up with some reasonable figures for how often Villian has to hold a worse hand and call to outweigh when he has a better hand. Not to mention any money gained from bluffs induced by my turn check from hands he wouldn't have called the turn with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I change my answer. I wasn't thinking enough earlier, and looking back at it, there is not a whole lot that he calls your turn bet with that you are beating. Considering the A,K, and Q of spades are already out there, there is almost no way he has a flush draw (since he raised preflop UTG). Similarly, he cannot have a straight draw. This leaves hands that MIGHT call the turn that we beat with AJ, AT, A9, but these are not so likely (considering the fact that he wouldn't call so much with these hands unless he has the 9,T,Js, and since you already have an ace, there are many less combos out there).

So, I do like checking the turn, and inducing a bluff on the river. I still don't like your river bet though.

[SparkyDog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not playing scared.

Assuming he checkraises me with 88, 77, KQ, and AQ I have a weighted average of 10 outs and 21% equity. I lose 1.16BB's everytime he checkraises me, equity wise. He also reduces my effective odds to 3.75-1 when he pulls off a checkraise, and I'm a 4.6-1 dog to his check-ranging range. So by betting this turn I manage to turn the nut flush draw with overcards into a losing play.

Assuming he calls with a worse hand (which he won't do a whole lot of, let's assume worse aces) with 3 outs with 2% equity I gain 0.96 BB's.

When he calls me with a pair, I lose 0.348 BB's.

I'll let you come up with some reasonable figures for how often Villian has to hold a worse hand and call to outweigh when he has a better hand. Not to mention any money gained from bluffs induced by my turn check from hands he wouldn't have called the turn with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I change my answer. I wasn't thinking enough earlier, and looking back at it, there is not a whole lot that he calls your turn bet with that you are beating. Considering the A,K, and Q of spades are already out there, there is almost no way he has a flush draw (since he raised preflop UTG). Similarly, he cannot have a straight draw. This leaves hands that MIGHT call the turn that we beat with AJ, AT, A9, but these are not so likely (considering the fact that he wouldn't call so much with these hands unless he has the 9,T,Js, and since you already have an ace, there are many less combos out there).

So, I do like checking the turn, and inducing a bluff on the river. I still don't like your river bet though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah river bet is easily the most questionable part of the hand. But remember he's TAGish, and didn't value bet me. So at the time I was almost certain he had a worse ace and didn't bet because no better hands folded or worse hands called. So I bet and hoped the worst case scenario was I was folding out a hand I already had beat, and maybe he'd call with a worse ace.

Still on the fence. Might be good for image purposes, since Villian knows he got pwned this hand when I value bet ace-hi.

Here's a question: Do you like the river bet more or less if I held AJ?

I think the river bet is bad. If he is taggy and has noticed that you are too then he'll be pretty sure that you don't have much after the turn. He'll call if he beats you and fold worse hands.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]


Here's a question: Do you like the river bet more or less if I held AJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only difference is that if he has AJ or AK you might get him to fold if you bet with your AJ, making it slightly better. Oh, one other difference is that he might call your river bet with AK, making it a bit worse for AJ (this is a -1BB mistake, while the other difference is a +6.7BB benefit if he has AK, and a +3.5 BB benefit if he has AJ).

I still don't like betting with AJ, but I think it would be better then betting with AK.