Party 750k cripple-me hand

[arkady]

For those saying; fold to a min-raise....Would it be reasonable to say that unless you are willing to call a min-raise you should not be raising?

But given the situation is it worth raising to 4500 given the stack size only to fold a min-raise? Or do the steals work often enough in these situations that in the long run (if there is such a thing) it makes the steal a worthwhile gamble?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
For those saying; fold to a min-raise....Would it be reasonable to say that unless you are willing to call a min-raise you should not be raising?

But given the situation is it worth raising to 4500 given the stack size only to fold a min-raise? Or do the steals work often enough in these situations that in the long run (if there is such a thing) it makes the steal a worthwhile gamble?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a 2.5x the BB raise is more appropriate, when blinds get this high relative to the stacks, usually this is enough to take the blinds.

When you get played back against in this spot, you are usually behind. Given villians play, I'm going to put him on a hand like Q/Q, K/K or A/A that is looking for action (that wasn't the case THIS time, but I think most of the time such a play will mean that type of hand)

So with a hand like 10/8 suited you're going to need a miracle flop in this spot to win the hand. If your opponent is on an overpair, then you are a 20% to 80% dog in the hand, and only getting 3-1 on your call. So you really aren't getting the right odds in this spot, if Villian is on that hand.

In this particular case, you were actually 40% to 60% in the hand, so you are getting a great price on your call. But in most cases, again, I put them on a strong pocket pair, so even if I hit one of my cards, I'm still behind and in trouble.

[fnurt]

Let's try and do this the scientific way. What % of the time do you put them on a big pair, what % of the time do you put them on big unpaired cards, what % of the time do you put them on random junk making a move?

Among total donks (i.e. in your Wednesday night game) a minimum raise often means nothing more than "I think you're bluffing, but I'm not going to risk all my chips to find out," so I do think you have to assign some number to the 3rd category.

[allenciox]

I disagree here. This is 750k guaranteed on Party, right? So most of the players are not total donks. I know that if I am in the BB, there are exactly 2 hands that I would make that minraise with --- AA and KK, and I would do that almost every time. Why? Because it works... people are too tempted to call that minraise without realizing that it pot commits them. Most good players are the same way. Without a better read, I would figure the majority of players in the 750k would not make a min-reraise in that situation with AQs --- it is an incredibly donk play. There is NOTHING wrong with the attempted steal preflop --- but you need to let the minraise go.

[fnurt]

But people do make this move with less than AA and KK. You guys have to get past this line of thinking that goes, "this is a weird play I would only make with hand X, therefore he most likely has hand X." Other people are not you. Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
But people do make this move with less than AA and KK. You guys have to get past this line of thinking that goes, "this is a weird play I would only make with hand X, therefore he most likely has hand X." Other people are not you. Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

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The problem is that you don't have a ton of chips relative to the blinds. You NEED to hit a flop, since it's quite likely your hand is behind (easily 90% you're behind your opponent in these spots)

And like I said, even when you hit a hand (such as top pair) you can't know with any certainty whether it's good. You could be up against an overpair, and you're still way behind.

You wind up committing too many of your chips and creating a pot that's too tempting to get away from.

I don't know how many players started that event, or how many get paid or what the payouts are. There are 180 left, and if there was a much larger field to begin with, I'm likely to give my opponents a bit more credit once they start getting whittled down.

That's not to say that donks can't or don't make final tables, so there's still chances of donks at your table.

I figure I can save 3K each time in those spots and wait for a better opportunity, or I can gambool it up, when it's highly unlikely my hand will beat my opponents holding in that spot.

Early in a tournament, where there are more donks out and deeper stacks, I don't mind calling and taking a shot at outflopping your opponent.

But it's similar to playing trap hands like K/J, Q/J, K/Q. If you hit your hand, will it be any good or are you dominated?

[fnurt]

What you are saying about the value of your chips is a good argument for not trying the steal in the first place. But it's not a good argument for refusing to call an extra 3k when you have the odds. What if the min-raise, somehow, was only an extra 2k? 1k? 5 bucks?

[ QUOTE ]
Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

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The problem is, in the min-reraiser's spot, you don't know for sure whether the initial raiser is stealing or holding a bona fide hand. If you suspect steal but have a good hand yourself, a min-raise might be somewhat logical. First, you get more money in the pot when ahead. Second, if he just calls rather than reraises you all in, you get information (weak or trapping). However, if you started minraising the initial raiser with garbage a certain percentage of the time, you are going to be spewing chips when he comes over the top and you have to fold (which he will do lets say 1/4 times given the stacks here). A resteal with garbage is going to be much more likely to push over the top for much more than the minimum amount to take advantage of fold equity.

Because the minraise bluff from the blinds is so expensive in this spot, and because almost everyone in the intial raiser's spot calls this bet (and the minreraiser knows this), you have to give the reraiser credit for a hand that has you beaten severely or crushed and disappoint him by folding preflop here, even though it feels so weak you will vomit in your mouth a little bit. Of course, if this happens again, or if someone else minreraises you when you are somewhat strong preflop and you give that person credit for being a thinking player, or you see the minreraiser make this move multiple times at the table, you would tend much more towards calling or playing back. I just think default here is fold.

By the way, I HATE minraises!

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it be reasonable to say that unless you are willing to call a min-raise you should not be raising?


[/ QUOTE ]

no. why would it? you get min-reraised pretty frickin' infrequently.