River decision with flush

Full Ring Empire $100 NL

No read, because I’m new to the table. Hero has $100 and Villain has me covered.

Hero is dealt 5c 7c in SB.

Preflop: three limpers including villain from MP and Hero completes from SB with
5c 7c.

($5) Flop: Qc 8c 6d

Hero checks, EP limper bets out $3, fold, fold, Villain raises to $9, Hero calls and EP folds.

($26) Turn: Qc 8c 6d 7h

Hero checks, Villain checks.

($26) River: Qc 8c 6d 7h Ac

Hero bets $20 and Villain raises all-in. Hero???

[jkkkk]

Be more agressive with the oes and flush draw, 3-bet the flop, i'd probably make it $45. Huge overbet but you get a lot of fold equity + good odd's to outdraw anything except a set.

[Inevitable]

Push the flop, bet the turn. Fold on the river.

[DoubleDown]

you want the $$ to go in on the flop on this hand ... if table is loose/aggro i like checking with the intention of C/R-ing this flop. C/R should be big, attempting to stack off on the flop. You've got great draws.

if the table is not so loose/aggro i might be inclined to lead out for full pot, as i would with a set as well. i would hope to get raised, in order to get the rest of my stack in on the flop.

[JihadOnTheRiver]

easy push on the flop. on the river, call so you can learn your lesson the hard way.

OK, so everyone seems to say push the flop. When I checked I had initially planned on raising and taking the pot right there, or just taking the free card if it checked around. But then an EP bet and MP raise had me convinced that one of them had a set. I really thought MP had a set and was playing it fast against a draw heavy board.

Anyway, I'm really curious about this type of situation. So let me ask this, what is the real advantage of pushing here on the flop? The only thing that definitely calls me is a set in which case I'm only 40% to win. That would be a terrible play, right? Two pair seems highly unlikely on this board from EP and MP, so I think that's unlikely. Someone may call me with A-Q (I'm not sure how often, but it's possible). Against A-Q, I'm 57% to win. But as a slight favorite, don't I want to take a fairly cheap flop and see what comes on the turn? What's the point of blowing him off the flop and winning a smallish pot? And even if he calls a third of the time, is 57% really big enough to be a big +EV situation?

I guess what I'm thinking here is that the number of times I get called with a set versus the number of times I get called by A-Q (and actually win) seems to be pretty slim EV (not sure if it's positive or negative, but slim either way). If I'm ahead on the flop, wouldn't it be good to just see a fairly cheap turn? If hit, I can bet out 1/2 pot and he'll likely call with A-Q. And my straight card would be even better because it's more hidden. I might even get raised by a set. Isn't playing after the flop in this case a much higher +EV?

Also, I took into account the fact that there was another player to still act. I figured I didn't mind having three people in the pot, especially if I hit my draw on the turn and the turn helped them too.

When I first posted this hand, I was thinking why didn't I just push the flop. But after reading everyone's response and thinking more about it, I'm wondering if there's a better approach. (I like to go against the crowd, I guess.)

Edit: I just ran the numbers for two pair. Assuming MP has 8-6s for two pair (the only other hand that might reasonably call), I'm only 48%. So obviously getting called by two pair would be bad too. I basically only want top pair to call. But really, I would prefer everyone to just fold and win a small pot.

[Ojo_Rojo]

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The only thing that definitely calls me is a set in which case I'm only 40% to win. That would be a terrible play, right?

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Edit: I just ran the numbers for two pair. Assuming MP has 8-6s for two pair (the only other hand that might reasonably call), I'm only 48%. So obviously getting called by two pair would be bad too.

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You should take into account the money already in the pot. If you push after the first raise on the flop, you are risking less than $100 in order to win at least $117 if you are heads up against the set. Yes, you'll lose EV in this case, but not a lot, and it wont happen here every time you push.

Youre in good shape (+EV) if a two-pair calls, and even better if it folds. Thats the beauty of fold equity.

If TPTK calls, youre dancing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

The only bad thing that can happen I think is someone with the better flush draw calling your push.

Ojo_Rojo

PS. Bear in mind: if villain makes a decent bet on the turn, your nice draw doesnt look so hot now, does it? Also if you make your draw on later streets, villain may not pay you off.

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The only thing that definitely calls me is a set in which case I'm only 40% to win. That would be a terrible play, right?

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[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I just ran the numbers for two pair. Assuming MP has 8-6s for two pair (the only other hand that might reasonably call), I'm only 48%. So obviously getting called by two pair would be bad too.

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You should take into account the money already in the pot. If you push after the first raise on the flop, you are risking less than $100 in order to win at least $117 if you are heads up against the set. Yes, you'll lose EV in this case, but it wont happen here every time you push.

Youre in good shape (+EV) if a two-pair calls, and even better if it folds. Thats the beauty of fold equity.

The only bad thing that can happen I think is someone with the better flush draw calling your push.

Ojo_Rojo

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OK. But in both of these situations (2 pair and a set) are pretty marginal, right? they might be slightly +EV, but not by much. I guess it seems to me that most of the hands that I want to call are the hands that fold. But these are the same hands (TPGK) that I could probably squeeze more out of even after I hit. Wouldn't it be better to play after the flop with those hands? It just seems to me that I'm either called by hands that make it pretty neutral EV, or folded to hands that would make it a +EV. I understand the fold equity here, but it seems that I really only have fold equity against hands that I don't want to fold. Am I missing something?

It also seems like in this situation, I have great implied odds with my straight draw, because it would be much more deceptive. But those implied odds would only exist if I play after the flop.

I would also point out that in this particular hand, I have two opponents, both of whom have shown strenght. I think that has to be taken into consideration.

Again, this is a situation that I'm really confused about and always feel uncertain about how to play. So thanks for the comments.

[Ojo_Rojo]

I understand your doubts, it took me a long time to convince myself that the push is the best play in these situations.

Lets say that you push after Villain raises to $9, and list possible occurances, starting with the most likely:

50%. Both villains fold. Equity about +$17.
15%. One villain calls with a set. Equity about -$14
10%. One villain calls with TPTK. Equity about +$23
10%. One villain calls with a (better) flush draw. -$26
5%. One villain calls with 2-pair. +$4

(Edit:Oops I missed 10% somewhere, put it where you think its appropriate!)

(I know this is probably inaccurate, but it is conservative, and hopefully it gives you some idea. Notice that if both villains call, in most cases, your outs are pretty much the same, which is even better for you. ( ie. getting called by a set AND 2-pair is better than being called in one place by a set.) Let me know if you think I've missed something.

That leaves (17*0.5)-(14*0.15)+(23*0.1)-(26*0.1)+(4*0.05)
which comes to $6.30 equity by pushing. Notice that the greatest contribution of your equity comes from the times when both villains fold.

Maybe that $6 doesnt sound a lot, but compare that to the way you played the hand - you'll find it hard to get payed off by your opponent when you hit your flush - (unless he's got a better one), and a likely bet from villain on the turn will make your nice hand turn sour.

Hope this helps,

Ojo_Rojo