Chasing a draw

Riposte · #1 08-18-2005, 04:06 AM

Ok, this hand addresses something that I've been trying to figure out. And that is how to determine whether or not to make a call when chasing a draw. Also, I apologize for the many cumbersome questions contained within.

1. I've scoured the forum looking for something that addresses this, but the only thing I've found addressed 6max games, and it was something along the lines of - aggressively play great draws and try to get the opponent to lay down - play good draws passively multiway or aggro HU - fold bad draws. Does this still generally apply in 10max games? I guess the answer is pretty straightforward so this may be a pretty dumb post.

2. Are half size and full size pot bets totally ruining my chances for chasing a draw, or is there some way to estimate the implied odds of calling to chase a draw?

Here on the flop I called a $0.24 bet. Let's say I knew for sure I would win if I hit the flush. Ignoring the gutshot, my odds to hit a flush are 4:1. Since my $0.24 is less than 25% of the smaller of our two stacks, is the call +EV? This must have to take into account a 100% probability of actually getting the guy to go all-in, which obviously isn't the case. Does this pretty much destroy any chances for draw chasing?

Perhaps I have to estimate how much money I can actually take from the guy, and use that as the implied odds to compare with the size of the bet?

3. I've gotten the general impression that pocket pairs and suited connectors are the "head hunters" of NL, in that they are seeking to surprise the monster overpairs and TPTKs and milk them for all they are worth. If that is the case, when facing a preflop raise while holding a suited connector, can I apply the 5/10 rule with my SC as I would with a PP in a 10max game (I think the odds of flopping some draw are also 5%)? This also confuses me, since you aren't always guaranteed to stack the guy when you actually do hit the flop.

4. Sort of unrelated... can anyone recommend some program or spreadsheet that calculates implied odds and EV of calling or making an all-in push? I've found something from the SNG forum called the SNG-analyzer (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/). Does anyone here use this for NL cash games?

Again, sorry for the long post. Comments on the play below are also welcome. Thanks.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) converter

SB ($2.71)
BB ($5.83)
UTG ($3.61)
UTG+1 ($5.95)
MP1 ($2.13)
MP2 ($3.74)
CO ($5.02)
Hero ($4.93)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.02, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, SB raises to $0.14, 1 fold, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.06.

Flop: ($0.32) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $0.24, Hero calls $0.24.

Turn: ($0.80) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $0.8, Hero got lucky.

xorbie · #2 08-18-2005, 04:10 AM

Half pot size bets give you 3:1 on your money and should almost always be called. Think about it this way, if there's $1 in the pot and this guy bets $.5 and you call, there's now $2 in the pot. Do you really think he's folding for $1 on the next street? On the flop, with position, you almost always have implied odds to call up to a full pot size bet. On the turn, half pot size is sometimes ok, less you should fold. Here your gutshot adds equity but also a situation of reverse implied odds, because you are drawing to the ass end where the nuts is a possible holding (because JQ has an OESD on the flop).

Riposte · #3 08-18-2005, 04:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, half pot size is sometimes ok, less you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you mean, more than half size pot I should fold? Or is it really worse to call a smaller bet?

xorbie · #4 08-18-2005, 06:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, half pot size is sometimes ok, less you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you mean, more than half size pot I should fold? Or is it really worse to call a smaller bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I meant lesser odds, as in a higher bet.

punter11235 · #5 08-18-2005, 07:33 AM

Hello !

If stacks are deep and pot is small you should call up to potsize bet with any reasonable draw on the flop (but not on the turn) in low limit cause people will generaly pay off or give freecard on the turn. In higher games you can sometimes fold baby flushdraws to potsize bets but usually dont do it against smaller bets (less than 2/3).
If you have Ah8h on Kh7h2s board you call potsize bet regardless of stakes (of course you can sometimes even raies here)

Best wishes !