Gutshot/flush draw against the only stack > me?

Eihli · #1 05-01-2005, 09:35 PM

$50 multi with 180 entrants, down to 106. Average stack is about 1700. I'm sitting well with 3.1k. MP is table leader with 5k and has been playing pretty loose. Playing Axo from EP and overbetting the pot with A high against shortstacks. No particular read on anyone else involved.
Blinds 30/60
UTG (1.5k) calls, MP (5.1k) calls, I'm (3.1k) on button with 6d 5d and call, SB folds, BB (1k) checks.
Flop 3d 7d Ks.
Checked to MP who bets 350. I call. BB pushes making it 1k. Folded to MP who pushes putting me all-in.

Can someone please check my math here? I'm getting 4370:2750 or 1.58:1. I'll hit 45% of the time (35/47)(34/46)=.55, so I'm a 1.2:1 dog and I'm getting 1.58:1 on my money. Since I'm sure I'm not the best person in this tourney, I don't want to pass up any move that is only slightly +EV, so I should call, right?

Thanks.

Rednax · #2 05-01-2005, 09:57 PM

On the other hand, someone may have a better flush draw than you, anyone with a set has some outs to beat you and even two pair has outs. That has to knock the odds down a bit. Your stack is in very good shape now. Are you sure you're not good enough to find a better spot to risk the whole tourney on?

Eihli · #3 05-01-2005, 10:05 PM

Even if the shortstack has a set or higher flush draw, I know MP as being wild, he could have a wide range of hands, so I could still lose to the shortstack and come out ahead.

Eihli · #4 05-02-2005, 07:23 PM

Bump. If you answer only one post of mine, please let it be this one.

Eihli · #5 05-03-2005, 12:08 AM

One last bump

CardSharpCook · #6 05-03-2005, 01:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bump. If you answer only one post of mine, please let it be this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm ok with either decision. I think that the fears that one of them has a better flush draw, two-pair, trips, a single flush card (with redraw value), etc, make this a slightly +EV call. That is, I think you win if one of your 12 outs show up, but your outs may give them outs.

So, it does come down to how you feel about your game. I think you are a much better player than you give yourself credit for.

GL

CSC

ZootMurph · #7 05-03-2005, 01:37 AM

You really need to decide here if your flush draw is good. If you think it is, definite call.

I'd look at it like this: One of them probably has a diamond, which reduces my flush chances and gives a small chance of runner runner diamonds beating me. For sure, your 4s are good. I'd estimate your outs at 10, which is 1.61:1. If BOTH have a bigger diamond, or one has a set, it further reduces your outs. So, without taking your opponents hands into account at all, you have an easy call. Considering their possible hands reduces your outs, and your odds, and therefore makes putting your tournament on the line while your stack is in good shape, in my opinion, a bad decision.