A weird odds situation - a case for drawing to big overcards

[Hoi Polloi]

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I talked to Justin A about it and he basically agrees. His calculations led him to believe that it maybe makes a 1 card difference. Maybe I am just a freak that is persuaded by lame clumping theories [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-James

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Drawing to 6 against 40. If you say your 7 folding opponents held 7 non-AK cards you ask whether your true draw might be 6 against 33. That would improve you from 15% to 18%. However, by eliminating those 7 cards, you are also implicitly making odds on the other card held by each of your folding opponents. What are those odds? The odds that any of 7 random cards drawn from a 46 card deck containing 6AKs will be an A or K. I can't do the math right now, but I bet they add back most of 3% you gained earlier.

Interesting post.