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#1
11-16-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
I've heard a lot of arguments for raising the turn on this board, and a few for raising the flop.
I think the best play is to raise and cap the flop, because that way a pair of tens will call you down most likely, and anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand. Not to mention you charge those flush draws an extra sb. Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO). 
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#2
11-16-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
[ QUOTE ]
anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand. [/ QUOTE ] I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn. [ QUOTE ] Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO). [/ QUOTE ] Many times a T will call down after the turn c/r, even if you don't have a particularly aggressive image. I agree that I'd call a 3bet and fold river, though, which sucks, even if it is correct. Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair?
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#3
11-16-2005, 07:10 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] anything that beats you will three bet and lead the turn or call and c/r the turn, giving you an easy passage out of the hand. [/ QUOTE ] I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] If you cap the flop, they aren't leading the turn often enough with a worse hand to justify calling. [ QUOTE ] Raising the turn isn't that much worse either though I guess, except a pair of tens will most likely fold here, and if you get 3-bet you want to fold but are practically pot-committed to see the river (where you will then have to fold UI, IMO). [/ QUOTE ] Many times a T will call down after the turn raise , even if you don't have a particularly aggressive image. I agree that I'd call a 3bet and fold river, though, which sucks, even if it is correct. Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair? [/ QUOTE ] true, sometimes a T will call down after a turn raise, but I think 75% of the time it is being folded. When I think more about it now, a turn raise is best if you fold to a 3-bet. In my experience a 3-bet here is a set or KT.
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#4
11-16-2005, 07:32 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] If you cap the flop, they aren't leading the turn often enough with a worse hand to justify calling. [/ QUOTE ] Who said we're capping after a 3bet? I am confused about what you're trying to say here.
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#5
11-16-2005, 07:15 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair? [/ QUOTE ] Board: Ks Ts 5d 8d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { KhJd } Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { KTs, K8s, K5s, KTo, K8o, K5o } Assume you call a 3bet and call the river bet, so you put in 2 more on the turn 1 on the river: .86 * 3 = -2.58BB Pot will be 9.5BB on river not counting the 3 you put in. .136 * 9.5 = 1.29 1.29-2.58 = -1.28 BB. So you lose -1.28BB when he has 2 pair here. x is % of the time he has 2 pair: So 1.28x = 9.5(1-x) 10.78x = 9.5 x = .88 So he needs 2 pair here >88% of the time to make 3betting -EV.
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#6
11-16-2005, 07:31 PM
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Re: this stuff pisses me off
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair? [/ QUOTE ] Board: Ks Ts 5d 8d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { KhJd } Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { KTs, K8s, K5s, KTo, K8o, K5o } Assume you call a 3bet and call the river bet, so you put in 2 more on the turn 1 on the river: .86 * 3 = -2.58BB Pot will be 9.5BB on river not counting the 3 you put in. .136 * 9.5 = 1.29 1.29-2.58 = -1.28 BB. So you lose -1.28BB when he has 2 pair here. x is % of the time he has 2 pair: So 1.28x = 9.5(1-x) 10.78x = 9.5 x = .88 So he needs 2 pair here >88% of the time to make 3betting -EV. [/ QUOTE ] What about the times he doesn't have 2 pair, but improves to beat us?
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