A 10/20 observation.

[arkady]

Arkady says: If villain bets out of position on river, villain has a hand 99% of the time.

Arkady also says: This bet is even more threatening than a river raise, due to the inherent tricky nature of the game.

Followup: It is hard to gauge the strength of the hand, but it is generally futile to call this bet w/A high and dangerous to raise. A stark difference from the out of position turn bet a bet I raise frequently.

Comments: This happens much less frequently in 5/10, but interestingly enough is actually a more straight forward and basic approach to poker. It is almost ABC in a sense, because they fear the check through so often. I notice such behavior from some of the old fogeys playing in the casinos, whose passive river bet generally spells disaster for holding as strong as TP/TK.

So, while I have stopped calling this w/A high there are certain oppoents vs. whom folding weaker holdings like middle pair or TP/no kicker might be fruitful. They are slowly, but surely sucking out 1 bb out of you everytime they pull this off.

For anyone interested I can pull up quite a few hands that illustrate this very point.

[easypete]

OK... not at 10/20 yet, but close....

At 5/10, I think calling this bet (in big pots) is sometimes good w/ A-hi HU if you feel there's a decent chance that they are pushing a draw on the flop (after they check and you check behind the turn w/ overcards).

Now, I feel this is very player dependant, and I feel I'm very + on this situation.

Now, I would agree if you are talking about a lead out bet after the c/c a turn bet from you.... then yes.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Arkady says: If villain bets out of position on river, villain has a hand 99% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Define "has a hand". Has a good hand, or has a hand that can beat A-high? I don't buy the 99% figure, a missed draw will g-- er, "donkbet" the river occasionally [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Ditto A-high on a double-paired board.

[arkady]

I dont know thats the problem. Its anywhere from MP, to rivered 2 pair, to flopped trips. The range is huge...

[Grisgra]

Are you referring to only donkbets then, or all river bets where the better is OOP?

[PassiveCaller]

These are way too general to be useful.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Arkady says: If villain bets out of position on river, villain has a hand 99% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure you're not just running bad? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[fyodor]

99% of the time someone uses the figure 99%, they are exaggerating to make a point. If you weren't, then I just think you are wrong.

At 10/20 the figure would be high but more like 80-90% IMO.

At 5/10 with any kind of a pot it is definitely worth calling with Ace high. People are always bluffing the river with donk bets in that game.

[arkady]

Yeah I find the distinction between the 2 games interesting. In 5/10 calling is easy, in 10/20 its probably a leak.

[arkady]

I disagree, the number is higher than 95%. I only said 99% because inthe 40k hands I am racking my brain to even think of 2 instances! I do not include crazy maniacs who bet for the sake of betting.