AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play

[Rico Suave]

TMFS9:

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I think this is a little on the weak tight side this is a blind stealing/blind defense situation with a loose somewhat aggressive villan

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You are probably right....but the villain did cap this preflop, out of position, and he isn't that aggressive. So I would be more likely to give him credit for a real hand here and probably played this with the call call call line(would raise the river hitting my 2-pair--which is probably inconsistent)

If there was some history or if he was particularly aggressive HU or in steal situations, then that is another thing...

--Rico

[ISF]

Am I the only one that thinks this river raise is bad. The only hand a reasonable player could have is KQ or maybe KJ that you beat and that will pay it off, and you have to be ahead >2/3 of the time when called for it to be profitable as all hands that beat you will likely threebet. You are probibly ahead at most 50% of the time given the way the action has gone to this point.

[TMFS9]

I've seen some pretty marginal hands capped preflop in these blind stealing situations from less than maniacal opponents. If you were villan would you cap call down TT,99,AJs, all hands for a reasonable opponent to cap preflop with much less a person with 50 something vpip. Now after the flop 3 bet I would start giving him credit for a decent hand.

[BottlesOf]

I agree too, that being said, I'd still raise that river.

Agree or disagree?

[BottlesOf]

Most players, don't make the proper adjustments to "blind battles" when he caps preflop, I think he more likely than not has something serious.

[Evan]

I agree that most people don't adjust well to blind v. blind hands, but I don't think it's on the passive side. There are plenty of people that get fucktardedly aggressive with J4s kinda hands.

[BottlesOf]

I just don't see that as the norm. I see people open completing in sb, or open limping on the button b/c they don't even know about stealing. But sure, there are fucktards..

[Derek in NYC]

I play it the same.

[easypete]

This hand happened during a sweat hour with JoeTall.

Joe said that this should have been just called... I debated w/ him a little and raised anyway. He referred to it as a "win 1, lose 2" situation. One of the biggest streets I seem to have issues with is the river. I either don't value bet it, or I value bet in the wrong situations. Sometimes, I do get it right. It's about learning.

Ok... Let's look at the villain here. He's LA-A. With his aggression, he could have anything. Capping pf.. I dunno... he could be doing this with garbage in order to steal later in the hand. I know I've done it w/ hands like KTo.

I'm behind to a lot of hands here.... AA (1 combination), KK (3 combinations), AK (6 combinations), QQ (1 combination), JT (16 combinations), 88 (3 combinations), 99 (3 combinations)... (any 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s).

I would eliminate hands like KK, QQ, and 88. I figure hands like this would more likely be played by the villain harder on the turn than the flop.

I would eliminate any 2 clubs edit due to the flop action.

So, I'm roughly behind to about 26 hands. What can he be playing that I beat?

KQ (6 combinations), JJ (6 combinations), A8s (3 combinations), KTs (2 combinations), KTo (eh... maybe... 9 combinations), KJs (2 combinations), KJo (9 combinations), TT (6 combinations)

Add in that he's not too bright... maybe more... maybe less.

So, maybe 43-50 combinations.

I raised based on the idea that this was a battle of the blinds and he would call a raise with any piece of the board, or a PP. And based on his stats, I felt he overplayed a lot of hands and I was ahead more than 50% of the time here.

The 3-bet on the flop is scary. But wouldn't he do that with many of the hands above that I beat on the river?

[Subfallen]

On this one, given the flop action, I just call the river. His flop 3-bet is pretty effin' strong.