$5 ultra turbo bubble decision

[SumZero]

Analysis and ICM before results:

zackflavored is at seat 1 with 750.
ImEasyTwo is at seat 4 with 4855.
SumZero is at seat 5 with 6775.
ballprkrat is at seat 6 with 2320.
KunalShah1984 is at seat 8 with 300.

So if I fold then we have:

750, 4455, 5975, 3520, 300. ICM says this is worth $16.90.

So if I call then we have the following situations:

Win: 750, 4455, 9495, 300. ICM says this is worth $21.03.
Lose: 750, 4455, 4455, 5040, 300. ICM says this is worth $14.78.
Tie: 750, 4455, 6975, 2420, 300. ICM says this is worth $18.15.

What is ballprkrats pushing range? Given the amount of people who fold their bigger stacks (80% of the poll), the size of the blinds, and the amount he's been raising, I could see a range of any pair, any ace, any two broadways (This is about 1/4 hands, so top 25%) quite easily.

Against that range poker stove says:

Win: 37.25%
Lose: 61.42%
Tie: 1.33%

That works out to an EV of .3725 * 21.03 + .6142 * 14.78 + .0133 * 18.55 which is $17.16. Which means we should definitely call.

If we tighten his range to (55+, A9+), top 10% of hands, [and given the number of times he's been pushing, and the number of people who are going to fold mediocre hands like q7s here, I think this is way too tight of a range] we get:

Win: 33.58%
Lose: 65.68%
Tie: 0.64%

That works out to an EV of .3358 * 21.03 + .6569 * 14.78 + .0064 * 18.55 which is $16.89.

So even with way too tight of a range for pusher, the call is essentially the same as the fold.

Results:

The actual results for the hand were hero chickened out and folded. ballprkrat showed his hand (the only time in his pushes up to this and after this that he did this) and he had AhKc. If I knew this and called I would have had:

Win: 36.78%
Lose: 62.82%
Tie: 0.4%

which works out to an EV of .3678 * 21.03 + .6282 * 14.78 + .004 * 18.55 for $17.09. So I cost myself $0.19, or about 3.5% ROI, by my fold given the exact cards he had, and even more given what I think his range was.

Fortunately I ended up finishing 1st in this tourney.

[tigerite]

Your sums are a bit off - I get him having to push with top 20% to make this a call. Yes you "only" need to win 36.4% of the time, but you can't put him on specific cards.

PS, I put it as you in the SB first time, so my sums were off. At 20% it's not quite so bad I suppose, but still that's fairly loose. If he's pushing AK here he's also pushing JJ etc so you were correct to fold considering his range.

[mackthefork]

The fact anyone can think of folding is making me cry.

Mack