Chase the low draw?

[jedi]

I think you've got to fold this flop. You've realistically got no chance for high, so even if you make the low, you're playing for 1/2 the pot. The only high shot you've really got is a back door flush, and backdoor wheel, but the board is already paired.

Once you see the turn, you have to see the river since a card you were waiting for hit.

River check-raise is good, but I would have folded this flop.

Flop is a call IMO getting 8:1. The turn is a good card for your hand IF villain doesnt have A's full. River play is standard.


Dont take one off like this in PL, ever, though.




Tex

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is a call IMO getting 8:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tex - But he's not getting 8 to 1.

He's only (realistically) playing for half the pot after this flop and since he needs two favorable cards, assuming the turn is favorable, he'll have to call another bet on the turn. That considered, I think he's getting no more than 3 to 1 implied pot odds for his portion of the pot. Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of 4 to 1.

Thus he truly does not have favorable odds to chase.

Buzz

His real implied odds were really closer to 5:1 when it was all said and done.

Assuming his will be the only nut low, and he can raise the river, which he did, and a great percentage of the time his low will take 50% of the pot, I find it correct to peel one here.


Sure it's close, but when I looked at the hand again and saw that he had company in the hand, I like the flop call.



Tex

[Buzz]

Hi Tex - Try this:

Make four piles of chips.

Start each pile with two blue chips to represent the two small bets on the first betting round.

Next put three blue chips on three of the piles and three red chips on Hero's pile. These chips represent everybody's contribution on the second and third betting rounds, assuming a bet each round, no raises, and no folds.

Finally put four white chips on Hero's pile and four blue chips on the other three piles. These represent Hero being able to get in a double bet on the river with all three opponents calling.

Now stack Hero's pile on top of another pile and remove the four white chips from this pile. Hero has the three red chips of his own plus eleven blue chips. That's for the times he doesn't get quartered or sixthed.

Now put the four white chips back on top of Hero's pile and divide it into two equal piles. (When hero gets quartered, he only gets a quarter of the chips in the pot). Then again remove the four white chips from Hero's (fourth of the pot) pile. This time hero has the three red chips plus two blue chips. That's for the times Hero does get quartered. (We'll include getting sixthed with getting quarted and count them the same as getting quartered to keep it simple here).
***

Now
(1) make three stacks of eleven blue chips and two stacks of two blue chips, a grand total of 37 blue chips.
(2) Next, evenly divide them up into five piles. (Doesn't quite work, so make two of the five piles with an extra chip. No big deal.)
(3) Put three red chips on top of each pile.
The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low two times out of five, as is statistically expected.

Think Hero only splits low one time out of five? I don't, but fine. In that case make four stacks of eleven blue chips, one stack of two chips, and then divide the 46 chips evenly into five piles. (Again there will be one extra chip, so just make one pile on chip higher than the others). Now put three red chips on top of each pile. The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low one time out of five.

Looks to me like Hero is getting about three to one implied pot odds after the flop. And that's assuming Hero only has to split the low one time out of five, which, honestly, is low for a game of this looseness.

There is nothing tricky here (at least not intentionally). It's just straightforward reasoning, and probably giving the benefit of any doubt to Hero.

We could do it algebraically instead of graphically with the chips and it would work out about the same.

I don't care if I win this argument or not, Tex. If I'm wrong I sure hope you can show me how and straighten me out.

Otherwise, if I'm right, I hope I have straightened you out. I'm totally convinced that Hero doesn't have favorable odds to purely draw for low after a flop with only one low card.

And even if the betting had been capped on the first betting round, Hero still wouldn't have favorable odds to draw for low after this flop.

(But sometimes, as with this turn and river, or when you pull the handle of a low pay-off slot machine, you go against the odds and end up winning).

Thanks in advance for any corrections to my logic.

Regards,

Buzz

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Tex - Try this:

Make four piles of chips.

Start each pile with two blue chips to represent the two small bets on the first betting round.

Next put three blue chips on three of the piles and three red chips on Hero's pile. These chips represent everybody's contribution on the second and third betting rounds, assuming a bet each round, no raises, and no folds.

Finally put four white chips on Hero's pile and four blue chips on the other three piles. These represent Hero being able to get in a double bet on the river with all three opponents calling.

Now stack Hero's pile on top of another pile and remove the four white chips from this pile. Hero has the three red chips of his own plus eleven blue chips. That's for the times he doesn't get quartered or sixthed.

Now put the four white chips back on top of Hero's pile and divide it into two equal piles. (When hero gets quartered, he only gets a quarter of the chips in the pot). Then again remove the four white chips from Hero's (fourth of the pot) pile. This time hero has the three red chips plus two blue chips. That's for the times Hero does get quartered. (We'll include getting sixthed with getting quarted and count them the same as getting quartered to keep it simple here).
***

Now
(1) make three stacks of eleven blue chips and two stacks of two blue chips, a grand total of 37 blue chips.
(2) Next, evenly divide them up into five piles. (Doesn't quite work, so make two of the five piles with an extra chip. No big deal.)
(3) Put three red chips on top of each pile.
The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low two times out of five, as is statistically expected.

Think Hero only splits low one time out of five? I don't, but fine. In that case make four stacks of eleven blue chips, one stack of two chips, and then divide the 46 chips evenly into five piles. (Again there will be one extra chip, so just make one pile on chip higher than the others). Now put three red chips on top of each pile. The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low one time out of five.

Looks to me like Hero is getting about three to one implied pot odds after the flop. And that's assuming Hero only has to split the low one time out of five, which, honestly, is low for a game of this looseness.

There is nothing tricky here (at least not intentionally). It's just straightforward reasoning, and probably giving the benefit of any doubt to Hero.

We could do it algebraically instead of graphically with the chips and it would work out about the same.

I don't care if I win this argument or not, Tex. If I'm wrong I sure hope you can show me how and straighten me out.

Otherwise, if I'm right, I hope I have straightened you out. I'm totally convinced that Hero doesn't have favorable odds to purely draw for low after a flop with only one low card.

And even if the betting had been capped on the first betting round, Hero still wouldn't have favorable odds to draw for low after this flop.

(But sometimes, as with this turn and river, or when you pull the handle of a low pay-off slot machine, you go against the odds and end up winning).

Thanks in advance for any corrections to my logic.

Regards,

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]
Buzz, I tried this out, but I seem to be doing something wrong, and I suspect that I just am misunderstanding something you sort of went over too quickly here. Could you just embellish on this procedure a little more? It seems like you're leaving out some important details to conserve space or to sneak under a self-imposed word count, but I think that by condensing it you may have inadvertantly skipped a step or something.

TIA

[benwood]

Buzz,I'm sure that you are correct when you say that the implied pot odds for him to win his portion are no more than 3 to 1 & that the odds against him making a winning low are around 4 to 1.However,it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw,for example.In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.I know that having the ability to throw your hand away 1/2 way through the situation when it's not developing must improve the total situation quite a bit,but I'm not a good enough mathmatician to get a good handle on this.If you or one of the other posters could show me how it works,I would appreciate it greatly,Thanks. Ben.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz,I'm sure that you are correct when you say that the implied pot odds for him to win his portion are no more than 3 to 1 & that the odds against him making a winning low are around 4 to 1.However,it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw,for example.In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.I know that having the ability to throw your hand away 1/2 way through the situation when it's not developing must improve the total situation quite a bit,but I'm not a good enough mathmatician to get a good handle on this.If you or one of the other posters could show me how it works,I would appreciate it greatly,Thanks. Ben.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think part of the problem is still that you're still playing for half the pot. The flop is high, paired, with a 2 flush. You have NO chance for high unless your opponents are complete idiots, and even then you might be drawing dead for high.

Let me try my hand at the math. If it's 3 to 1 with implied pot odds, and 3 to 2 in favor to pick up a low card on the turn. That's fine, but if there's a low card, you have to pay off ANOTHER bet on the turn to see the river. That's 1.5 big bets right there for 1/2 the pot. (I'll edit this in a second)

Edit:
Okay:
On the flop, there are 9SB in the pot, it's 11 SB in the pot when Hero makes the decision to call. According to Buzz, it's not the 6 to 1 odds, but you have to discount the odds for the times you get quartered so Buzz gives it about 3 to 1 to draw to a backdoor low. Assuming you make the call, there are 6.5 BB in the pot for the turn. There's a 3 to 2 shot to find a low card, in which case you need to likely call AT LEAST 1 more bet on the turn. So, instead of 1SB on the flop, it's a 6 to 5 shot of 1.5 BB. After turn betting, it's 10.5BB and let's say you're about 3 to 2 to hit your river low. You can check/raise as hero did to get to 16.5BB (but that might not always happen, since someone might fold). So, it's not just the 1SB on the flop, but 1SB for a 3 to 2 shot at risking 1 BB, for a 6 to 5 shot at getting 8.5BB.

Okay, I'm now confused. Someone help me out here?

Either way, you're drawing for a backdoor low with no chance at a scoop in a not mid size pot. I fold this without a second thought on the flop.

[Buzz]

I wrote originally that 195 of the 990 possible two-card combinations for the turn and river make Hero the nut low.

I just re-tabulated and got 219. I must have transcribed a number wrong the first time or punched a number into my calculator incorrectly or somthing. I should have checked it more carefully yesterday before posting.

At any rate today I get 219 as the total number of possible two-card combinations for the turn and river than enable the nut low for Hero. I’ve checked the 219 a bunch of times, so that I think 219 is correct.

Thus I think the correct odds against Hero making the nut low are 771 to 219, or about seven to two, rather than about four to one.

My apologies for my error. Hope I’ve finally got it correct.

Doesn’t make much of a difference in terms of the final conclusion drawn (that Hero doesn’t have favorable odds to draw for a back-door low). But drawing for runner-runner low is not quite as bad as I represented it yesterday.

Again, my apologies for the error.

Buzz

[Buzz]

I wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of 4 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Change to: Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of <font color="red">3.5 to 1</font>.

Sorry for my error.

Buzz