semi-bluffed all the way to the river...and I miss.

NL 100 on Pokerroom

No real reads on villian...I think I should have pushed on the river, but I wasn't sure about how much fold equity I had duie to his stack size. Thoughts on all streets welcome.

Hand 1621547945, Started at 12/22/2005 9:24 PM
Table 'Bradford': $1-$1 No Limit HE (Real Money)

Seat 0: Villian($116 in chips)
Seat 6: Villian 2 ($90.10 in chips) (on the button)
Seat 8: Hero ($134.50 in chips)

*** Blind Bet Round *** :

Dealt to Hero: As 3s
HeartOfGold. : Post Blind ($0.50)
Hero : Post Blind ($1)

*** Pre-Flop *** :

Villian : Bet ($3.50)
Villian 2: Call ($3.50)
Hero : Call ($2.50)

** Flop *** : 5d 4s 9s

Hero : Bet ($8)
Villian : Raise ($20)
Villain 2 : Fold
dougfood27 : Call ($12)

*** Turn *** : [ 5d 4s 9s ] 8d

Hero : Bet ($25)
Villian : Call ($25)

*** River *** : [ 5d 4s 9s 8d ] 6c

Hero : Check
Villian : Bet all-in ($67.50)
Hero : Fold

*** SUMMARY ***

Pot: $166.50 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 5d 4s 9s 8d 6c ]

Villian bet collected $166.50, net $50.50
Hero lost $48.50

[PoBoy321]

Check the turn. The donkbet sucks. I might push the flop since you definitely have at least 13, possibly 16 outs and some fold equity.

[DJ Sensei]

Aye, either push the flop or slow down on the turn and hope he gives you odds to draw.

[dbitel]

[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn. The donkbet sucks. I might push the flop since you definitely have at least 13, possibly 16 outs and some fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

Hmm...let me first start out by saying that I usually play a relatively tight game, sacrificing some small edges for a smaller standard deviation. I particularly stay tight if I don't have a read on the other guys (as you indicate here).

Pre-flop, I don't like the call. Unless you are up against some really LAG folks, you are probably the underdog to one if not both of the other players. Other players also tend to notice a potential flush relatively quickly, so even if you hit your hand you may not get paid off. If an ace hits, you had better have two pair or you will still have to play assuming you are beaten.

On the flop, I can see the bluff. You have the gutshot straight and flush draws, and the flop is not likely to have hit anyone. When he raises you, you have 12 outs to hit your hand and if my quick math is correct you are getting odds for the call.

On the turn, I check-fold (assuming he bets enough to beat your pot odds). If he bets low enough to call, my plan would be to check-raise if the two comes up, or bet enough to induce a call if the flush hits. He's represented strength already, and I don't think it is likely that he dumps his hand to your bet. It did slow him down a bit (as it probably would me), but since the 8 isn't likely to have helped you I don't think he's any more scared now than on the flop. You can certainly try to knock him out with the bluff, but in this instance I cut my losses and go.

On the turn, I don't think you had any other options. He may not have a great hand himself, but you can't beat much that he could possibly be holding.

I'm still learning myself, so everyone can feel free to comment on my thinking. Adios, and good luck.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn. The donkbet sucks. I might push the flop since you definitely have at least 13, possibly 16 outs and some fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the feedback. Looking back, I can see that if I make a move, the flop might be the place to do it.

As played, my turn bet seems to have slowed him down...do you think I had any fold equity on the river? Or was a check fold the right way to go?

Also, if I going to continue to be aggressive on the turn, would a bigger bet be more effective? If I fire out $35-$40 (roughly 2/3 pot), do you thimk that incraeses the chances he lets his hand go? I don't typically play draws this agressively, but I am working on mixing up my play and finding the right situations be aggressive with a strong draw.

[PoBoy321]

Given that you only called the flop raise, any turn bet is spewing, IMO.

[jsnipes28]

Fold Preflop.
I would have three bet the flop all-in which has some good fold equity.
Check the turn and hopes he bets an amount that you can call. Problem with betting turn is that if he has an overpair and suspects that you have a set he might just call. Now if you hit your flush on the river he is going to reason that you were already beating him with a set or are now beating him with a flush and he will fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold Preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this was mistake #1...i was in the middle of a hand elsewhere and didn't really process that I was calling a raise OOP. I'm actually pretty selective with my preflop hand selection most of the time.

Thanks for all the feedback.

[dbitel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn. The donkbet sucks. I might push the flop since you definitely have at least 13, possibly 16 outs and some fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the feedback. Looking back, I can see that if I make a move, the flop might be the place to do it.

As played, my turn bet seems to have slowed him down...do you think I had any fold equity on the river? Or was a check fold the right way to go?

Also, if I going to continue to be aggressive on the turn, would a bigger bet be more effective? If I fire out $35-$40 (roughly 2/3 pot), do you thimk that incraeses the chances he lets his hand go? I don't typically play draws this agressively, but I am working on mixing up my play and finding the right situations be aggressive with a strong draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the big problem with flat calling the flop is that you are OOP on the turn. As a result, either push the flop, or if you do just call and miss...check the turn hoping for a cheap river. A bet on the river is surely just throwing money away, as villian pretty obviously likes his hand