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#11
06-24-2005, 02:37 AM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
Yeah, I'll be the first to admit I made some mistakes on this hand. The raise probably should not have been made. I was steaming a bit after this hand and was questioning myself about this fold, even though I was 99% positive it was the right fold when I made it.
As for the results, the turn was a 2, and both players left in hand got all in....BB had A 2 soooted and MP1 had AK. I still know the flop was the right fold, but needed some verification just in case I was going insane. Thanks. 
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#12
06-24-2005, 05:49 AM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5. 1 fold, <font color="red"> Hero raises to $3.5, </font> [/ QUOTE ] Wha wha whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa???? Raising 99 UTG+1 in a full ring game is like flushing chips down the toilet. [/ QUOTE ] that's a bit of an exaggeration. have you ever played in the $100 games on party? this isn't the big game at the Bellagio, you know. i took a look at my PT stats. i filtered for pairs, and raised first in. in my entire database of 100K+ nl/pl hands, my 99 UTG+1 shows a profit of 12.36 BB per hand. having said that, i have raised 99 UTG+1 just 16.67% of the time. this covers $100, $200, and $400 no limit and pot limit. cheers!
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#13
06-24-2005, 07:43 AM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
i have raised 99 UTG+1 just 16.67% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Did you also filter for how often those games were shorthanded or full ring? In a 6-max game, I think that raising 99 UTG is fine, but in 10-max, I really don't think it's a good hand that you want to be playing OOP.
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#14
06-24-2005, 09:11 AM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe someone can help me out with the odds here, but you're going to see overcards to your 99 on the flop >50% of the time [/ QUOTE ] Close to 80% of the time, I think.
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#16
06-30-2005, 08:49 PM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe someone can help me out with the odds here, but you're going to see overcards to your 99 on the flop >50% of the time -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Close to 80% of the time, I think. [/ QUOTE ] True and to make make matters worse, the probability that someone has an overpair is significant in a full ring game. With 9-9 it is greater than 20% 10-handed. Granted this is 9-handed and UTG folded but there are still 7 players to act so I think raising this EP is asking for trouble because you really don't want to see a re-raise.
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#17
06-30-2005, 09:22 PM
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Re: NL 100...4 4 4 flop with lots of preflop action
Showing profit on a hand that you raise with 16% of the time is not a very compelling argument in favor of raising it preflop. It would seem to indicate that limping is highly profitable.
And over the course of 100k hands, how often do you get dealt 99 UTG+1? A sample size of 50 is completely meaningless anyway.
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