A8s.....river play?

#1 11-14-2005, 09:58 AM

BB and CO are unknowns. First hand for both.
The only one I know is BU 66/0/.8

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls....

Comments?

Schwartzy61 · #2 11-14-2005, 10:03 AM

Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

#3 11-14-2005, 10:05 AM

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Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

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Someone with a 5 made their hand on the turn.

Schwartzy61 · #4 11-14-2005, 10:13 AM

And if they are "slowplaying" will still at least call and maybe even reraise...

You have no read on the other two so you can't say with any certainty that they will overcall anyway. If one calls and one folds you gain nothing. If both fold you lose 1 BB. If they would've called a raise you miss out on 2 BB unless one of them happens to raise in which case you can make it 3 bets and perhaps get it capped 3-way. comes down to what you think is most likely. I would think individuals calling down on that board are doing so with a hand that will call a raise or will fold to any bet so I may as well raise...

Bill Lumberg · #5 11-14-2005, 10:32 AM

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Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

numeri · #6 11-14-2005, 10:35 AM

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

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Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

jrz1972 · #7 11-14-2005, 10:40 AM

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

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Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

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That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

Bill Lumberg · #8 11-14-2005, 11:18 AM

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

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Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

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That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

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Exactly. It's more complicated than he has this or that. You have to think mathematically long-term. See my other post for formula. You have to think, "How often will this happen?" That's what determines the best play here. And like he said, the board here affects the percentages so that calling is best.

Schwartzy61 · #9 11-14-2005, 02:49 PM

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Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

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How do you know the flush doesn't freak them out and all they will do is call whether it be one bet or two? You have absolutely no read on the players behind you so you can make no assumptions about how they will react to your actions. In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

jrz1972 · #10 11-14-2005, 07:22 PM

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In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

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It's not really fair to single out one poster here, but this quote exemplifies the mistake I see in how many people are approaching this problem.

You are probably right that raising guarantees one extra BB at least, while calling might get you zero extra BBs. (Technically, Villain might be bet/folding, but I'll grant that's unlikely). But poker is a gambling game, and it is frequently right to give up a bird in the hand if doing so gives us a sufficiently good chance to get two in the bush.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that BB will call a single raise but will fold if it's two to him. (That should be reasonable. Like I said before, he might be bet-folding, or maybe he's a fish who will call two more cold with an overpair, but I think the typical player will call one but fold to two.) In this case, there are basically two cases in which calling costs us money:

1. Everybody folds behind us after we call. That's extremely unlikely. Most of the time, at least villain will call with his crap pair or he will have hit whatever draw he was pursuing.

2. Somebody calls who was willing to coldcall two bets if we raised but won't raise himself if we just call. Again, this seems very unlikely. If we raise, we are folding out crap pairs and getting called only by straights and flushes. But those hands would have raised if we called.

It is very unlikely that we lose any bets by just calling. I'm not going to try to assign probabilities to those events because those sorts of numbers tend to be arbitrary, but suffice it to say that it would be surprising if we lost anything by calling.

On the other hand, there are a couple situations in which calling gains relative to raising:

3. We get overcalls from two opponents holding crap pairs that would have folded to a raise. Not too likely, but possible.

4. Somebody after us raises his straight or flush, allowing us to trap BB and possibly the other opponent for extra bets. I see this as being more likley than 1, 2 or 3. In this case, we at least force BB to toss in a couple more bets and also gain another bet from the raiser (who may very well have just called our river raise but now puts in 3 bets).

Not only is scenario 4 the most likely of the meaningful, non-break-even scenarios, it's also the one that involves the biggest payoff. The more I think about, the more call-reraise seems clearly +EV relative to calling.

It is true that calling has a lower downside than raising, but it also has a larger upside and a probability distribution skewed toward that upside. It's a gamble, but it's a good one IMO.

Even if one disagrees with this analysis, you absolutely have to get away from thinking about only the worst possible scenario for various plays and what various options "guarantee" you. Playing for guarantees is very rarely good poker.