Who will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008?

Jimbo · #1 09-12-2004, 04:20 PM

Since the Democrats have all but written off this election as a loss I wonder who they are grooming behind closed doors? Do you think President Clinton had this heart operation in oreder to setup Hillary for some sympathy votes? Will Edwards be able to distance himself from Kerry's failure and secure the nomination? How about any darhkorses, who do you like?

Jimbo

cardcounter0 · #2 09-12-2004, 05:10 PM

I think a bunch of candidates will annouce their intentions, there will be some straw votes and polls, they will have some primaries, and then they will hold a convention where the Candidate will be nominated. Do you think they will do things differently?
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Dynasty · #3 09-12-2004, 05:56 PM

Hillary and Edwards are the obvious heavyweights in 2008. Edwards just needs to look good in the debates to set himself up. Hillary has enormous popularity in the Democratic Party's base.

It's going to be hard for anybody else to break through on the Democratic side. Hillary and Edwards will suck up all the big money early. It'll sort of be like Gore and Bradley in 2000 except that it will be much more competitive.

On the Republican side, the top two candidates are supposed to be Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Bill Frist. I doubt Vice President Cheney will even run. He's not that popular even within the Republican Party and has no broad appeal. He'll also be 67 years old. There will be talk about Senator John McCain but he missed his chance in 2000 and will be 72 years old in 2008. Besides, he's hated by lots of powerful peopl in the Republican Party. Former New York City May Rudolph Guilliani will definitely run but he's not going to win the nomination as a pro-choice candidate.

It's sort of odd. The party not in the White House (Democrats) are the ones with the heaveyweights. Usually, it would be the incumbent party. The Republicans should have lot of relative unknowns running.

cjromero · #4 09-12-2004, 07:03 PM

If GWB wins in November, I think that sinks Jeb Bush's chances of getting the nomination. The country will not want to add a third member to the Bush dynasty so close to the other two.

While Bill Frist has some appeal, the popular thinking is that he hasn't done a great job as majority leader in the Senate. If he is not successful in helping Bush get some of his agenda passed in the next 4 years, his star will continue to dim.

Assuming McCain believes he is too old to run in 2008 (something I am not sure of), don't underestimate Guiliani's ability to win the nomination, even though he is pro-choice. The platform will still be pro-life, and my guess is that Guiliani will agree to compromise on the issue of future judges, etc. if it means he gets the nomination. Don't underestimate the Republicans' desire to nominate the person that they think has the best chance of beating Clinton or Edwards. Guiliani is probably that person, at least at the moment.

Want a potential sleeper pick? How about Condi Rice? While a Guiliani/Clinton (or even McCain/Clinton) race would be incredibly interesting, a Rice/Clinton battle would have some intrigue as well.

andyfox · #5 09-12-2004, 07:14 PM

"Since the Democrats have all but written off this election as a loss I wonder who they are grooming behind closed doors?"

-Which Democrats have written off this election? Do candidates really still get groomed, with any success, behind closed doors? If so, whom did the Democrats groom for this current election?

"Do you think President Clinton had this heart operation in order to setup Hillary for some sympathy votes?"

-Wouldn't he have waited until closer to 2008? He could just have an affair in 2007, for which she could forgive him. And besides, it's going to take a lot more than an operation or an affair to make her sympathetic. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] She's a terrible speaker, IMO.

I guess we need to get angiograms or some other types of scans. After all, Clinton was thoroughly checked out at the Mayo Clinic every year since 1992, and yet he comes up with three occluded arteries. A stress test and an EKG apparently are not sufficient. I think I may get a scan.

"Will Edwards be able to distance himself from Kerry's failure and secure the nomination?"

To use one of our favorite 2+2 phrases, it depends. Mondale got the nomination despite Carter's debacle against Reagan. But he was a VP for four years. Lieberman's campaign this year was a joke. So who knows. Edwards did reasonably well in the primaries and has the experience to lean on.

"How about any darhkorses, who do you like?"

-Far too early to say. See Dynasty's post of a few weeks ago about how difficult predicting these things can be.

Abednego · #6 09-12-2004, 07:30 PM

I hope the GOP doesn't run a Senator. Senators possess a different skill set than do governors. A governor would never tell the folks at the DMV that they have been handing out the license plates narrow side out and he thinks they should hand them out wide side out. Senators are do this all the time .... they spend weeks in commitee arguing over semi colons in the most obscure areas of the legislation they are trying to pass. In the 20th century there have only been two senators elected to the highest office. JFK who was a good chief executive was one - can you name the other? Governors on the other hand possess the skill set needed to be chief executives by virtue of their training. I think Senator Kerry' training has him too involved in too many details of his own campaign and it is suffering because of this. Just a thought .

Dynasty · #7 09-12-2004, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Want a potential sleeper pick? How about Condi Rice?

[/ QUOTE ]

She supposed to want to run for Governor (of Texas, I presume). I think running for President is too big a leap for her since she's never held elective office. There were people in the party who wanted Cheney dropped from the ticket this year. A lot of those people wanted Rice to replace him. Politically, that would have been a great move.

cjromero · #8 09-12-2004, 08:38 PM

I think you are getting Condi Rice confused with Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison is one of the Texas senators who plans to challenge Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary in 2006.

mmbt0ne · #9 09-12-2004, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I hope the GOP doesn't run a Senator. Senators possess a different skill set than do governors. A governor would never tell the folks at the DMV that they have been handing out the license plates narrow side out and he thinks they should hand them out wide side out. Senators are do this all the time .... they spend weeks in commitee arguing over semi colons in the most obscure areas of the legislation they are trying to pass. In the 20th century there have only been two senators elected to the highest office. JFK who was a good chief executive was one - can you name the other? Governors on the other hand possess the skill set needed to be chief executives by virtue of their training. I think Senator Kerry' training has him too involved in too many details of his own campaign and it is suffering because of this. Just a thought .

[/ QUOTE ]

2?

Warren G. Harding - 1915-1921
Harry S. Truman - 1935-1945
John F. Kennedy - 1953-1960
Lyndon B. Johnson - 1949-1961
Richard M. Nixon - 1950-1953

Dynasty · #10 09-12-2004, 09:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are getting Condi Rice confused with Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison is one of the Texas senators who plans to challenge Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary in 2006.

[/ QUOTE ]

Condi has been rumored to want to run for political office. The Governor discussions were taking place as long as two years ago. It's possible that she's changed plans or other developments have made it unlikely. But, I'm not confused.