Interesting Hand: Flopped Set

weevil · #1 01-13-2005, 06:47 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed) converter

Hero (t2620)
UTG (t1446)
UTG+1 (t2425)
UTG+2 (t205)
MP1 (t1975)
MP2 (t1149)
MP3 (t3655)
CO (t628)
Button (t3040)
SB (t1860)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t50, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to t175, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t125, UTG+1 calls t125.

Flop: (t550) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (t550) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t300, UTG+1 calls t300, MP1 calls t300.

River: (t1450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t450, UTG+1 raises to t900, MP1 raises to t1500 (All-In), Hero calls t1050, UTG+1 calls t600.

Final Pot: t5950

The call preflop is easy. I check on the flop because I'm either way ahead or way behind to a higher set, so I want to see how they react, and to sandbag a bit. Right now I have one of them on at least KQ, maybe one of them with a high pocket pair. Both players are fairly tight and passive, though they've shown signs of aggression. Neither comes into a pot with a raise without good starters, fairly predictable, but not that solid postflop.

Them checking the flop tells me they each could have a piece of it but most likely not a set. So I come out with a 2/3 pot bet on the turn representing a possible steal the way I've been playing, most likely they'd put me on AQ/AJ. I'm hoping they play back at me now, but they just call. What do I put them on now? If one of them had a strong hand on the flop I would have expected him to come back over the top. The fact that the pot is three handed with a big preflop raise makes me think that the other two players have good but not overly strong hands because of their caution, and they just don't believe me, now probably putting me on KJ/K10 if I have something, otherwise a high ace; both of which they can beat. So again more likely that one of them has AK and the other KQ, with the outside possibility of a high pocket pair.

The river scares the crap out of me. If someone had a possible pair of queens they've got me beat now, and JT completes the straight. This round of betting also worried me, though I thought it represented KQ from UTG+1. I didn't know what to make of MP1 reraising all in. I think AK is the most likely hand for him to play this way given the large preflop raise, but from what I've seen, this could be the set of queens or a slowplayed set of kings. Again, UTG+1 limped to begin with, so I can't absolutely rule out J/10, though calling that big of a raise and sticking around on the turn for the inside seems unlikely, ALTHOUGH the 7 on the turn gives J/10 a double bellybuster draw with the 8 or the queen. Thinking back on this now I see that it is more likely than I thought that UTG+1 might have this holding, because he got the free card for the seven and his implied odds for the straight were very much there so long as MP1 didn't come over the top.

I'm pretty sure I have to make the call, because the chances of running up against another set are something like 1/1000, but in two previous tournaments that day I had run into higher sets and busted out, so I was very worried. How likely is it that you'll run into a set of queens or kings here given the action and the players, and is J/10 even an outside possibility given my descriptions? Does this call pretty much have to be made, or can I save myself my last 800 or so chips? How was my line on all streets given the possible range of my opponents holdings? Is checking the flop a good idea? Given the 7 on the turn could I have made it not worth the draw for J/10 and exposed a set of kings and pushed out pocket queens? Or am I looking for monsters here? Thanks, hope you find this hand as interesting as I do.

Weevil