How bad is variance?

[4_2_it]

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If you're having huge swings on a regular basis it's probably because of your style and not simply the dreaded "variance."

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I agree with this. My play is a SLAG and I am not afraid to put my money in the middle if I think I have the best hand. I accept the swings inherent in the style (though I am far from proficient and have much to learn) which seems to work for me.

I think each player has to figure why they are playing, what their true style is, and how to best exploit the advantages of that style. Dr Al's book on the Psychology of Poker is an excellent and I highly recommend it.

[DCWGaming]

Link to tillermans blog?

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Link to tillermans blog?

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http://tillerman.net/

I have no idea what entry the 65-70% of winning sessions was. There was a post on here about his blog in which it was mentioned also. If you find that post it might have the specific link.

[kruschel]

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I agree with everyone else that buying in for 1/5 the buy-in seems kind of silly. Even if you are playing some kind of short-stack strategy, buy-in for more.


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It's not silly with the Ed Miller strategy. It's a prerequisite there.
But I concur that the OP should probably learn how to play Poker properly and buy in for more. It gets a higher return in the long run and isn't as boring.

[zephed]

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$100 for 20 buyins would be fine if you where going fully stacked into 2c/5c NL (not that ive ever seen that level)

Bottom line is, you dont have enough of a roll.
Buying in for $5 or 20bb is not enough chips to play properly.

For example, your sitting with AcKc. It is raised $1 to you and your on the button. You re-raise to $3 and are called by the original raiser. The flop is Ad 9d 2s.
If your opponent has a flush draw, you cant make him make a mistake with a call.
If you cant make him make a mistake, you cant win long term.

If you where playing nickle/dime, $100 for 20 buy-ins would be a pretty good bankroll at that level.

If you want to only risk $100, go to a site with micro limits until your ready to move up.

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Your thinking is flawed. Just because on one particular flop his opponent will be getting proper odds to draw to his flush, does not mean we are playing -EV poker. In fact, even if his opponent may be getting nice odds postflop, his preflop mistakes could be so bad that there is no way for him to make it up postflop, even if he totally owns you postflop. That's what you are not realizing, his mistakes are mostly preflop mistakes.

Furthermore, you forget to note that villain doesn't always have a nice draw and the flop doesn't always come down so nice for a good draw. You didn't even mention the times hero flops a flush draw with some overs and can profitably shove his money in on the flop.

Playing shortstacked is a +EV strategy if you play tight preflop. That's about all there is to it. It's certainly not an optimal strategy but it is the only way I (a limit donkey) can play this evil NL game and make money.

[-Skeme-]

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Limit has a much higher variance over the long run, but the short term swings are much greater in NL.

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Are you sure? I thought the variance was MUCH higher in Limit altogether.. I've played both and I would say Limit has many more swings.

And to OP, variance is good and bad, not just bad. Upswings and downswings are both part of variance.

[4_2_it]

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It's certainly not an optimal strategy but it is the only way I (a limit donkey) can play this evil NL game and make money.

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Once your conversion over to the Dark Side is complete, you will learn to totally embrace the full buy-in.

[zephed]

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It's certainly not an optimal strategy but it is the only way I (a limit donkey) can play this evil NL game and make money.

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Once your conversion over to the Dark Side is complete, you will learn to totally embrace the full buy-in.

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I don't know about Ed Miller's short stack strategy... but honestly... I think buying in for the full $25 and learning how to play real poker is really worth it.

The games are SO soft at that limit and SO retarded that if you can hold any hands you can get paid SO easily and make a lot more money.

Of course... that's assuming you're a strong player. But it's the best place to learn to become a strong player too.

Nothing like Donkey's calling 45BBs to the river with a gutshot.

[Bco1/75]

I thought Ed millers theory was to prevent wild bank roll swings (with small BRs)when a donkey calles your KK preflop with A6 and gets paid off when he spikes a river A? If your bankroll is large enough to prevent these swings. by all means max your buy-in