Still struggling with the paired doorcards

I think that opponent is on tilt here - hence the river call.

I put him on a flush draw, or possibly a high bag, given the lack of action on 3rd and 4th. Certainly not aces to start with, and very likely not even a pair. I would have folded 5th if there had been any significant action earlier.

Thoughts?

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.30 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

5th Street - (1.15 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (3.15 BB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

River - (5.15 BB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: 7.15 BB

[BTirish]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded 5th if there had been any significant action earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should be using the opposite logic with a drawing hand--there's less reason to continue here when the pot is laying you 2.15:1 on your 5th street call when you're 17.6% to make the hand on the next card. You're drawing to 6 outs in 34 unseen cards here with a very small pot... I'd let this one go.

edit: Oh... I'm not suggesting you should continue with 4-flushes against paired door cards even when the pot is a little bigger. But if you have a drawing hand heads up, you need a big enough size pot and good chances to win in order to continue.

[Roland]

I think I was watching this hand. Is that possible?

And yeah - this should absolutely be a fold.

Did he catch an eight on the river?

I don't understand why this is a fold. If I have a four flush and a pair, and I'm right that my opponent started with a three flush (or any other hand without a pair), then my equity is around 55%, according to twodimes. If he does have two pair, then I probably win if I make trips or the flush (about 42%).

Surely at the very least, I can call fifth and sixth, and have +EV if I hit trips or a flush.

I'm certain he doesn't have three aces, and he probably doesn't have a pocket pair, as he would have bet fourth with say 44A7 in last position. Many people would have raised third, representing the aces, with this hand.

Can someone explain?

[Roland]

Yeah, you’re right. If you’re sure that he doesn’t have a second pair, you can call this down.
But you have to be really, really sure - against aces up you only have about 30% equity. And since you obviously can’t be that sure - at least I can’t see how you can be - you’re average equity should be somewhat lower than 55%.
You might have an edge here, if you’re read is correct, but it’s tiny.
Or you’re read is way off, and you’re hurting bad.
I try to avoid these situations.

Now are you going to tell me if I was watching this hand?
It really bugs me. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

I don't know if you were watching the hand or not - my psychic powers are weak today [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] - if your screen-name is Roland, then I don't think so.

Two dimes says that equity against aces up is 37%, and against one pair is 55%. If I miss everything, then I can pass the river, and I often get a free showdown if I want due to my paired doorcard. If I do connect, I may well get a raise in as well.

I still think it's worth playing...

[BTirish]

If you are fairly confident that he has only the pair of aces, then you can call it down.

My point is that, on 5th street, the pot is very small. At best, you're a slight favorite (like, 52-48) to win the hand. If your initial read (that he had 3 clubs to start) is correct, you're a slight dog. There are a whole range of possible hands in which you're a 55-45 dog, a 60-40 dog, a 70-30 dog, or a 75-25 dog. So, as Roland says, you can't assume your equity is best case scenario (52%), even if you have good reasons for thinking he started with no pair and no 7. If the pot were bigger, I'd probably call it down too--but there's not much of a pot right now, and I don't think it's worth fighting for in this kind of situation.