Settle an Argument: Good Fold?

[jalsing]

I wouldn't be surprised if BB showed 66/88/99 on this hand, although A9s is just as likely...

..hard decision, I'm not sure I could fold it, though.

[e_fermat]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be surprised if BB showed 66/88/99 on this hand, although A9s is just as likely...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and I would add 77's and KK-TT as very likely candidates as well. This makes it an easy call (and hence bad fold).

I've played nearly 1000 SNG's now and I don't think I've ever folded AA on the flop.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter

SB (t860)
BB (t1070)
UTG (t740)
UTG+1 (t865)
MP1 (t380)
MP2 (t1075)
MP3 (t755)
CO (t1395)
Hero (t860)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t15, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t35</font>, SB calls t25, BB calls t20, MP2 calls t20.

Flop: (t137.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t100</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t275</font>, SB folds, BB raises all in t1000, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t562.50

[/ QUOTE ]

Terrible fold IMO, at least at the $10+1 level. Had you called, you would likely have been shown something like 97s or T9o. The vast majority of $10 players will slowplay a flopped set, straight or two pair against a preflop raiser. I would put this player on one pair and perhaps a straight draw.

[KenProspero]

First, I agree with the general advice, your pre-flop bet was wrong. You have to bet the AA bigger. But that's not your question.

I'd ask what hands is BB likely to have.

It's possible that BB started with a pocket pair and has hit his set, or has hit two pair, in which case, if you call you're probably going to go down. Such is life.

However, BB could have something like 9K or 9Q (or even 9A) for this raise. BB could also have TT, JJ, QQ or KK. It's even possible that BB has something like a middle pair and is trying to bluff you out.

I think it's an easy call.

[SpeakEasy]

BAD fold.

If you are going to be spooked by this board, you are going to be spooked by EVERY flop that could possibly hit. In this case, I suggest that you just fold the AA pre-flop while on the button and wait for a better hand in better position... *cough*

*sniff* Is that sarcasm I smell??

[SpeakEasy]

Upon further review, this post should be required reading for every 2+2 poster in the One-Table Tournament forum. Alternate titles include:

"Don't Ever Make This Play" or

"How to Misplay AA on the Button, Both Pre-Flop and On the Flop".

Just wanted to make sure your argument was fully settled.

[DangerGoodson]

I guess I win, Fudgenut.