When not to make a continuation bet

[maddo]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter

MP2 (t1585)
MP3 (t670)
Hero (t1710)
Button (t2240)
SB (t2355)
BB (t1745)
UTG (t1690)
UTG+1 (t1470)
MP1 (t2255)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t100.

Flop: (t325) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1595</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2070

I nearly always bet when I've raised in LP and I'm checked to, whether I've hit the flop or not. Often I'll take the pot there and then. But after the BB check-raised here when I had a nice flush draw and back-door straight draw I wondered if sometimes I could check to try and win a bigger pot. This would only be in situations where I have a great draw and a check-raise makes me throw my hand away. Any recommendations?

BTW, BB showed his hand after I folded.

I would bet moer on the flop, for starters. Thats quite the draw-heavy board and a thinking opponent would think you would bet more to protect your hand. However, BB probably likes his hand and was raising regardless.

Checking behind on the flop isn't bad here, as it induces the villain to bet the turn. If he has just a lone K or one pair, you can push any broadway/ace and have a lot of fold equity to go along with your draw.

I bet the flop most of the time even when I have a draw, but this flop seems to be a good one to check behind simply because top pair or better will probably raise to protect against the draws.

[maddo]

That's funny. I just started reading HOH2 this morning and he addresses this exact situation in the first chapter.

[ QUOTE ]


I nearly always bet when I've raised in LP and I'm checked to, whether I've hit the flop or not.

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this could be why he bluffed you out with his check raise. I think you have to mix it up and not always have a standard play, otherwise its to easy to get a read on you and take advantage.

[applejuicekid]

What is wrong with calling and praying he has A6?

[maddo]

I agree. I'm going to try and mix it up a bit in these type of situations.

He didn't bluff me out. He showed me a pair of Aces. In hindsight, checking here could have been real profitable if I'd made a flush on the turn.

[zoobird]

I think checking behind here is perfectly ok, but I would usually do a semi-bluff/continutation bet as well. While I'd usually make the bet about 200 with 325 already in the pot, I don't think your bet was bad.

Actually, to me the interesting part of this hand is that I don't think its an autofold when he puts you all in. If I'm doing the math right, you'd be putting in 1410 to win 2030. Even if you assume that he's got you beat right now, that's probably good enough pot odds to call with your 2nd nut flush draw with two cards to come. I also think there's a chance that he put you on a steal pre-flop and continuation bet on the flop and that he's got nothing here, in which case the other 3 jacks and the other 3 sevens may even be outs for you. I'd call.

[kuro]

I'm make a larger continuation bet say 250-350 and then call the push because you're probably 45:55 vs the range of hands that get pushed into you.

[suckbot]

[ QUOTE ]
\If I'm doing the math right, you'd be putting in 1410 to win 2030. Even if you assume that he's got you beat right now, that's probably good enough pot odds to call with your 2nd nut flush draw with two cards to come. ... I'd call.

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I'm not sure if I agree with that logic. it's early in the tournament. Even if he is just trying to steal the pot without a real hand, you are going to have to hit something. Let's say he missed completely. He's bound to have your J beaten as a high card. Chances are he has at least the 9. In which case, you need to hit your J or hit that flush draw (assuming he doesn't have that beaten). So you've got at best 11 outs. Ok so maybe the odds work out for a call. But not by a real margin.

So let's say he has the K (not even the AA), now you're calling your stack on a flush draw at $50 blinds with $1500 left if you fold? Seems a little rash.

Take your medicine for trying a steal that didn't work out and move on.

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm doing the math right, you'd be putting in 1410 to win 2030. Even if you assume that he's got you beat right now, that's probably good enough pot odds to call with your 2nd nut flush draw with two cards to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite correct. Hero isn't even getting 2:1 on his money and there are no more implied odds since villain would now be all-in. There's already an overcard on board to both of hero's cards, so if he's behind he's drawing to 9 outs twice and is about 35% to win here. You have to consider the fact that the villain called hero's preflop raise for nearly 10% of his stack. Calls in this spot usually mean either overcards or a pocket pair. In a best case scenario where villain has nothing but is holding two overcards hero now has 15 outs twice but also needs to catch something, anything, in order to beat villains high cards. Without the odds to call and the possibility of busting by calling and losing I'm folding here and looking for a better spot.

And how is hero's J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] the 2nd nut flush? The Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is still out there somewhere!