OE straight draw ...

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter

BB (t430)
UTG (t1925)
MP (t1190)
Button (t2220)
Hero (t2235)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t100, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t300) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t330 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, Hero ....

[strelok]

i don't think I would. He probably caught a queen or it is a desperation bet with an Ax. You're the chip leader, I would try and maintain my lead and look for a better hand to take him out on as he is sure to do it again, real soon.

[The Yugoslavian]

Bah....I don't think so. Even if you think he's pushing any hand he limped with....it's not clear that you gain much by calling here. Then if you consider that many opponents will only push here after hitting a piece of the flop....you're not gaining anything....

It is quite tempting though....

Yugoslav

[BradleyT]

I think hero has 11 good outs here (8 straight, 3 for 9/T) which is plenty to call.

When he wins (40%)
He'll be chipleader by nearly 50% over the next stack.
He can use his chiplead to punish.
One player closer to victory.
Possible image play (even though he has pot odds here)

When he loses (60%)
Not much damage to stack
Psychological effects of being 3rd stack (but only marginal)
Villian still has less than 10X BB whether he folds or calls and loses

I think wins &gt; losses.

[lastchance]

I call. I'm not losing too many chips if I'm behind, and if BB doesn't have a pair, I'm happy. If BB is passive, I think it becomes a fold. But, given no reads, I believe you have enough outs to call.

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm thinking you could do an $EV equation for this, and find this to be +$EV to call this everytime. And in particular, when hero has such a large chip lead. Any thoughts?

Consider the following probabilities.
1. Complete bluff
2. Ax bluff
3. Villain has paired the Queen (worst case scenario)
4. Villain has paired a lower flop card, so hero has 6 more outs with the two overcards
5. Villain has 57
6. villain has lower pocket pair

And on and on. I'm pretty sure you could come out for this to be +$EV considering that it's 2:1 pot odds. Again, anymore thoughts?

Scuba

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

He'll be chipleader by nearly 50% over the next stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then I'm much worse at math than I thought....[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img].

Yugoslav
Who thinks Scuba can get the keys to the bus by other means...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yugoslav
Who thinks Scuba can get the keys to the bus by other means...

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I multi-table, I'm playing this game more via math. If my assumptions are correct, and this is a +$EV play to call, isn't that the correct move?

Scuba
who is no bus driver.

[The Yugoslavian]

I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your new analysis, and considering the pot odds, are you changing your answer?

Scuba