I can call this flop right?

BWillie · #1 07-09-2005, 10:29 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

UTG is TAG. Button is fish.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Greg J · #2 07-09-2005, 10:49 PM

3 outs for a gutshot (not 4 -- it's ass ended) and 1 more for the BD flush gives you ~10.5:1. You are getting 9.5 immidiate odds (rake), but you are getting the implied odds to make this call, esp since you are closing the action. Calling is okay -- it's kinda close.

Cancer Merchant · #3 07-09-2005, 10:49 PM

You're getting 10:1 with 5.5 outs (4 gutshot + 1.5 Backdoor Flush) outs. This is enough to call. If you discount the BDF outs, since they're non-nut, it's 10.5:1; not a horrible call, especially when closing the action.

Greg J · #4 07-09-2005, 10:51 PM

I think you are being a little generous. You should not give 4 full outs for a one card ass ender.

Chris Daddy Cool · #5 07-09-2005, 11:02 PM

its fine.

Greg J · #6 07-09-2005, 11:13 PM

New avatar -- classy as always.

newfant · #7 07-09-2005, 11:09 PM

Quick and dirty:

Assume that on the turn, you win if you hit your gutshot. 3 outs. 47 cards to come. 6.4% chance of hitting on the turn. The pot is laying you 9.5:1 which means you have a 9.5% chance to win. However, I think a safe assumption is that you will get at least 2 more BBs out of UTG due to his PF raise and lead on flop, so the implied odds mean the pot is laying you 13.5:1 or 6.9%.

With these assumptions it's a close fold. However, if you think you can get another BB out of someone on the turn or river, then the pot is laying 15.1:1 or 6% and you can call. Plus, you have the back-door flush which may be good if it hits. However, there will be instances where button has a 7 and you will end up splitting the pot so you can prolly figure you have right around 3 outs at the moment.

I think you can assume here that you can get 3 more BBs out of someone on the turn and the river, so I would make this call. If this call is a mistake, I think it's a small one.

Let's do the turn:
The pot is laying you 6.75:1. Let's assume you'll get one more BB out of UTG on the river, so the pot is really laying you 7.75:1. You now have a flush draw. This time, let's put UTG on a hand range and use pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com) to figure our equity. Since UTG is TAG, let's put him on 99-AA, and AK-AQ and AJs.

With UTG's range you have 31% equity. Very nice. 7.75:1 is 11.5%, so the turn is a much easier call than the river.

Well played.

Edited to add: On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

turaho · #8 07-10-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling the river is the worst possible idea ever. You have 7 high. Do you really think UTG has been bluffing this entire hand with a worse hand?

newfant · #9 07-10-2005, 12:26 PM

Actually I meant "on the turn." I rarely call down with 7 high. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

turaho · #10 07-10-2005, 12:49 PM

I was hoping that's what you meant. Or else that would have been my nomination for "Worst Advice Ever Given on 2+2". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]