Big Suited Broadway in multi-way raised pot

[Kevin]

My laptop is in for a 50,000 mile tuneup, so I don't have my database to refer to. Hand happened last night in a 3/6 party game and I wanted to get some feedback.

Open raiser is fairly loose and pretty aggressive:

Hero is on the button with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

fold raise(villian), coldcall, coldcall, coldcall, fold, coldcall, (me) 3-bet, sb fold, bb coldcall, all call.

7 way action 21 small bets. Small blind has $4 left after the call.

Is the 3-bet okay? I figured that it was a raise for value in the mulit-way pot. I also wanted to see if the open raiser would take it to 4 bets - as he has been capping AA-1010 and AK but nothing else (about 250 hands against him during the evening).


Flop coming after feedback

Thanks,
Kevin

[W. Deranged]

I think three-betting is certainly not bad given all the cold-callers. It's better with a hand with more straight potential (QJs) but I imagine it's better than calling here as well. Your opponent's obviously will be calling with tons of trash. Info is nice. You might be able to get the turn for free or something. Sure, I like it.

[Paxosmotic]

After that many calls this raise should be nearly automatic. Pretty fine game selection, too.

[callmedonnie]

I absolutely hate this raise.

[callmedonnie]

I read the post before the feedback. I'll happily concede that I'm wrong but let me get the logic first. You put an extra bet in here for value from all the trash. I know you probably have a better hand than most now, but the flop changes a lot. When you make hand you pick up several extra bets. When its kills you can fold. And when you get a draw the pot is so big you have outs to hit and scooop a huge one. Someting like that?

[W. Deranged]

Basically, hero's hand has three major things going for it that pretty much assure he is going to have an average equity edge against this field in the hand:

1. That many limpers simply must include some that are limping with very bad hands, including ones that hero likely has dominated.

2. Hero's hand has two way "big hand" potential from the straight potential (less important) and the flush potential (very important). It is a very important fact about multiway pots that suited cards (and, to a lesser degree connecting cards) will generally play much better than unsuited ones. The chance that any specific hand wins is going to decrease in value when other hands play along. It is a fact, though, that the winning probability suited cards will tend to decrease at a slower rate than unsuited ones, as a function of the number of players in the pot.

3. Hero has position.

Suited broadway cards tend to maintain their value quite well even as you add players, whereas unsuited broadways don't. The basic reason is that some signficant portion of the time you will make a flush, and that part of the time you are going to win so often that the number of players in the hand doesn't really matter.

[baronzeus]

After so many cold calls, you are likely to have at least one of your pair outs dominated. It's close, but I just call, I don't 3bet here, because only a straight or a flush will save me.

You should be willing to 3bet 78s if you are willing to 3bet KJs here, I think.

[callmedonnie]

All of what you just said I am aware of, however even with that knowledge my instinct was only to call as that pot is huge already and your hand, while better than most out there, is going to miss quite often.

The idea of raising should be about maximizing value though. So I take it the idea is that you get extra bets in from poor hands, and when you do hit your hand or flop a draw which you then hit, you increase your winnings.

Basically, one more small bet here is worth it because of the amount of players already in, and the strength of your hand when you do win.

[Paxosmotic]

Yes, although I think this is a very fractionally +EV situation. This isn't exactly raising AA HU, this is KJs against 7 players. I don't think it's going to be a signifigant bump in EV, but it'll be a bump nevertheless.

Speaking of which, I wonder if any other psychology geeks in here would join me on this. Depending on your general playing style and personality, raising this could actually be -EV if it's a play you're fundamentally uncomfortable with. You could easily tie yourself to a pot and feel lost. I'm just thinking outloud, but I wonder if some of these very close EV decisions might swing from + to - and back again depending on the individual person.

[baronzeus]

I did a little experiment. I made a hand range for the raiser, the 4 cold callers, and the BB. The cold callers get looser and looser because they need less of a hand as more calls go in. BB is random because he should call with almost any 2.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.0929 % 16.05% 01.05% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 14.7349 % 13.66% 01.08% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 14.7098 % 13.68% 01.03% { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 4: 13.3079 % 12.32% 00.99% { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 5: 12.8387 % 11.87% 00.97% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 6: 10.9213 % 10.38% 00.54% { random }
Hand 7: 16.3944 % 15.85% 00.55% { 87s }


---

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.6038 % 16.68% 00.93% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 14.7997 % 13.71% 01.10% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 15.0409 % 14.02% 01.02% { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 4: 13.6434 % 12.67% 00.97% { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 5: 13.1103 % 12.17% 00.94% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 6: 12.2806 % 11.87% 00.41% { random }
Hand 7: 13.5212 % 12.34% 01.18% { KJs }



You can see that KJs is clearly a worse 3bet here than 78s, according to these hand ranges, and is a marginal 3bet at best.