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#21
11-27-2005, 03:04 AM
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Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
[ QUOTE ]
Mathematical side discussion about completely unknown players: [ QUOTE ] 90% cap 3% -> 0.9 * 0.03 = 0.037 10% cap 15% -> 0.1 * 0.15 = 0.015 0.037/(0.037 + 0.015) = ~71% [/ QUOTE ] 90% * 3% = 0.027 (and not 0.037) 10% * 15% = 0.015 Probabilty that player is a "10-percenter": 0.015/(0.015 + 0.027) = 35.7%. Remember that postflop. On average an unknown Villain who caps preflop will be much more aggressive than a random opponent in the game. Probability that player does not have a top 3% hand: 0.012/(0.015 + 0.027) = 28.6%. Why 0.012 and not 0.015 in the numerator? Because even a LAG can have a premium hand. [/ QUOTE ] Someone please tell me that I don't have to be able to do this to become an expert player. Please, I'm begging. /mc 
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#22
11-27-2005, 04:32 AM
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Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
yes sw i did make a typo (and continued it through in the math). i also ignored accounting for the chance he in fact has a top 3% hand.
i also disagree with your 90/10 split, which means i disagree with how often you're against a worse hand, and thus i disagree with playing this hand aggressively. i do, however, like this thread and this discussion.
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#24
11-27-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
[ QUOTE ]
Someone please tell me that I don't have to be able to do this to become an expert player. Please, I'm begging. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Remember that postflop. On average an unknown Villain who caps preflop will be much more aggressive than a random opponent in the game. [/ QUOTE ] If you understand the second quote and apply it to your play you should be all set. Feeling better now [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]?
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#25
11-28-2005, 01:22 PM
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Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
[ QUOTE ]
Feeling better now [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]? [/ QUOTE ] Quite frankly, no. I feel like the guy that the other guy in the saying gives a fish to, instead of teaching him how to fish. I want the ability to think of that thing about cappers in the first place and the ability to put the math to it. And I want these things without doing any work, which is the problem. Thanks for all the fish, though!  /mc
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#27
11-28-2005, 03:10 PM
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Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
I would usually raise 66 UTG. I would also have three bet AJs. You gain so much information form your opponent's reaction to a three bet that it is worth it, even if you don't think you have the best hand.
If he caps you can play the hand outa little more passively, afraid of the overpair. If he just calls you usually don't have to fear the overpair and you are much more likely to be ahead here. That is of course unless he has 66, then you're screwed.
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