Freshly Played Hand

[QTip]

Quote:
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It just seems to me that no one has even considered that i could be right, and yes i have posted this hand on another forum and a very high calibre player agrees,

And giving the villan exactly the AK, AQ of diamonds is completely unrealistic, youve aleady started he would raise overs here so you cant rule out black AKo. I have posted the proper hand ranges earlier in this thread.

Please tell explain to me why 3 betting this flop is bad.


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Much better tone, thanks.

Zak has said his range is the following (which I wasn't sure about at the time of the hand). TT+, AQs+, AKo

As for the other player, only God knows what his range is, and it probably doesn't "make sense" to any of us.

I think it may be able to be represented this way:

Board: 9h 8d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:36.5147 % 35.00% 01.51% { TcTd }
Hand 2:37.1233 % 36.05% 01.07% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:26.3620 % 25.41% 00.95% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }

So, we MAY be pushing a 3% edge. As you said, there are times to push that and times to not push it. Just because you have an edge at a moment in a hand, DOES NOT always mean that you should be throwing chips in, and the next card can drastically impact your holding, and you can then get away from the hand more easily, or push a much better edge. Now, whether this hand falls into one of those categories or not is the question.

We obviously don't KNOW in the hand whether Zak has us beat or just has overs. So, we can discuss now what is correct play given the FTOP, but we really need to be discussing what is the correct play during the hand.

I'll admit, at the time, I really felt that my equity would increase with a safe turn card. But that doesn't appear to be the case.

Board: 9h 8d 6d 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:33.5809 % 32.39% 01.19% { TcTd }
Hand 2:40.4176 % 39.46% 00.96% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:26.0015 % 25.43% 00.57% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }

However, I did know I would be in much better shape if I didn't see an A or K on the turn:

Board: 9h 8d 6d Kh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:15.3073 % 14.27% 01.04% { TcTd }
Hand 2:54.3410 % 53.33% 01.01% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:30.3517 % 29.80% 00.55% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }

Board: 9h 8d 6d Ah
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:11.8524 % 10.82% 01.03% { TcTd }
Hand 2:58.0604 % 57.00% 01.06% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3:30.0873 % 29.52% 00.56% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }

So....

I do find this to be rather interesting. The only cards that increase my equity from the flop to the turn are a T or a 7 (a J also slighly increase the equity as well). All other cards decrease my equity, and some in a drastic manner.

So, perhaps this is a different scenario altogether. I'm not looking for reasons to not 3 bet the flop. I'm looking for what seems to be the best play, and that answer is not always black and white, and can go different directions depending on a person's style and other factors.

However, I will say this. Given the fact that the small equity edge you have on the flop WILL BE lost on the turn without the falling of 10 cards, I don't like 3 betting the flop. This is different than I originally thought as my reason for not 3 betting the flop previously was because I thought my equity would increase on the turn due to a "safe" card and I could push a larger edge; however, as we've seen, that's not true. So, I still like my play, but for a different reason.

Zak will most likely not fold his overs to my turn bet, but I like to continue to apply preasure on the turn in case that's what he's holding. Of course, I cannot fold to a raise (if he does so) because of my gutshot. Some may think that simply check/calling the turn if I was 100% positive Zak would not fold overcards; however, I like making him pay to catch anyway. Also, there is perhaps another benefit to betting the turn. If a blank hits the turn, and I bet and Zak doesn't raise, I can put him on overcards. This makes a river value bet a very easy decision. This is not to say that if he does raise the turn, I can put him on an overpair, since he could do so with something like AKs with a 4 flush as well.

Those are my thoughts. I'm happy to hear your response.

[badbill7]

MP3 is more likely to play a flush draw or OESD draw like this rather than the range you gave him, in which case his equity is greater. It comes out to around 36/34/31 or so.


I think point here is we have no read on mp3 if he has three bet cc i wouldnt put him on pp or straight,flush any more than i would put him on chasing A high. Our friend mp2, since he is a poster of some renown, i have to put on the flush draw, mayebey straight draw to a lesser degree. So i bet river here feeling like i have a better than fifty percent chance of being ahead here.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is more likely to play a flush draw or OESD draw like this rather than the range you gave him, in which case his equity is greater. It comes out to around 36/34/31 or so.


I think point here is we have no read on mp3 if he has three bet cc i wouldnt put him on pp or straight,flush any more than i would put him on chasing A high. Our friend mp2, since he is a poster of some renown, i have to put on the flush draw, mayebey straight draw to a lesser degree. So i bet river here feeling like i have a better than fifty percent chance of being ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another person spoke of the range I gave teh PF 3 bet caller. Honestly, his range doesn't effect the fact that my equity is going down on the turn.

However...it does effect my equity if a J falls. Now the effect has gone from positive to negative.

[SippinSoma]

Board: 9h 8d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.5043 % 33.61% 00.89% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 34.9350 % 34.04% 00.89% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 30.5607 % 30.38% 00.19% { 3d2d }

Board: 9h 8d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.1360 % 34.08% 01.06% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 43.8378 % 42.78% 01.06% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 21.0262 % 20.84% 00.18% { 7c2c }

Board: 9h 8d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.1310 % 29.25% 00.88% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 29.1963 % 28.31% 00.88% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 40.6727 % 40.50% 00.17% { KdQd }

Once the donk cold calls on the flop, these are our most likely situations. His only means to winning is a flush draw and we have no edge. If you 3-bet in this case, you're losing pennies off of every bet in the long run. If he has an OESD, you're making pennies when you 3-bet. If he has a combo like overcards + flush draw, you're losing pennies every time you 3-bet. In the best case scenario that he would cold call here with a pair and an underkicker (which is highly unlikely), you have a 43% edge and you're barely making pennies - ASSUMING they both CALL your bet. You may fold out the donk and Zak may cap, preparing you to fold.

Note how these are in the best case scenarios where your donk only has good draws. If he has an awesome combo, you're a dog. If he's slowplaying a made straight or set, you're a dog. If Zak only plays this way with overpairs and you're read was wrong, you're a dog. If you consider reverse implied odds, you're a dog. You're not bambi, you're a [censored] dog.

I would go into depth about the turn, but breakfast is calling. I really hope you see that because in the best case scenarios, you're a slight favorite or slight dog - in the average case scenario, you're likely to be a dog with no edge and 3-betting here has no positive purpose.

[molawn2mo]

Forgive me for redirecting some of thought process here, a rather intriguing process, at that.

If we look at the hand from Zak's perspective. He raises the flop like any self-respecting 2+2er would do with a variety of hands including overs or overpair or strong draw (in this case a flushie). He gets call ed in 2 places and then faces hero's turn lead. Zak reads this a overpair 90% of the time, hero with a flush draw would likely choose a check raise or check call depending on where the bet came from. Zak, when faced with the turn bet must choose between forcing the unknown to call 2 cold and opeing himself up to being 3 bet by hero. When Zak chooses the passive line, his range of hands narrow to overs 80%, TT-QQ, 20% (obviously, arguable).

On the river then, hero ought be quite confident that he has Zak beat and ought not expect Zak to call a bet. Hero's consideration is how to maximize against the unknown and since there is no FE against the unknown IF Zak correctly folds when Hero leads the river. Concurrently, though, If the river goes check, check then unknown would be hard pressed to bet into 2 others, even weak others, with a hand that we don't beat. All in all the river is damn close.

Maybe the river logic could go something like... since bet/call only wins versus a bluff, then unless I can fold to the river raise, I should be satisfied with check call.

Too weak?

[bambi]

Ok then tell me this, if we have no equity on the flop or very small amount, that doesnt justify 3 betting, why are we leading into the preflop raiser, asking to be raised? i mean oneits one or the other you have equity in which case you want to pump the pot, or you dont have equity, in which case you should make the play depending on what odds we are given to improve to the best hand, and leading into ZAk isnt that.

Also i think the amount of time Zak has AQ AK here greatly out way they times he has an overpair, just on a combinations basis.

The thoery of waiting to the turn to see what fails as you have found out is completely wrong, as when you start playing high uncapped heads up pots.

suppose you hold an OESFD, against a persons top and bottom pair,you want to pump this pot as you have equity, you cant say i will wait to the turn to pump it as if you dont hit, or he hits your equity goes down a hell of a lot, and you become a dog

[chief444]

QTip just asked my thoughts on it. Without going into detail...I don't like it. I think he either needs to 3-bet the flop or check the turn. The draw-heavy board isn't as dangerous 3-handed as it would be more multiway...so MP3 is way more likely just overlay here than a risk of a good draw. QTip has a gutshot to go with his overpair and a BD flush although not likely worth much. So if he's thinking MP2 would raise A-high on this flop then I don't see how a 3-bet couldn't be right. If he doesn't think A-high raises then I don't see how the turn bet can be right. He told me he thought A-high raises. I thought that made the flop bet good but flop call bad. He can always revert to check/calling an A/K turn. The way he played it I think he's missing value on the flop. Either that or he's making a bad turn bet. But I like the 3-bet based on everything he just told me (which I assume is posted somewhere below).

Oh and obviously the river is a value bet since MP2 would raise better hands on the turn.

[chief444]

Oh and...I think BostonZak's flop raise sucks. I don't know the results but I'm sure based on the turn it was AK/AQ and I see no point unless they were both diamonds.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok then tell me this, if we have no equity on the flop or very small amount, that doesnt justify 3 betting, why are we leading into the preflop raiser, asking to be raised? i mean oneits one or the other you have equity in which case you want to pump the pot, or you dont have equity, in which case you should make the play depending on what odds we are given to improve to the best hand, and leading into ZAk isnt that.

Also i think the amount of time Zak has AQ AK here greatly out way they times he has an overpair, just on a combinations basis.

The thoery of waiting to the turn to see what fails as you have found out is completely wrong, as when you start playing high uncapped heads up pots.

suppose you hold an OESFD, against a persons top and bottom pair,you want to pump this pot as you have equity, you cant say i will wait to the turn to pump it as if you dont hit, or he hits your equity goes down a hell of a lot, and you become a dog

[/ QUOTE ]

Bambi:

I just asked Chief to post his thoughts and he agrees with you and your mid-high friend. I do see the inconsistency now in my line, but I still have some thinking to do. However, I will say I agree that waiting for no turn Ace or King is not a good thought. I can 3 bet and check the flop if need be.

I'm looking forward to more conversation in this thread as I'm still learning things here.

oh..and combo wise, he has 25 pairs and 20 overcard combos. This is based off his statement that his range is TT+, AKo and AQs+.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh and...I think BostonZak's flop raise sucks. I don't know the results but I'm sure based on the turn it was AK/AQ and I see no point unless they were both diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forgot to say what you said about a c/r or bet/3bet line making it more likely to fold his overs on the turn.