A7soooooted. play along? - Page 2

TheHip41 · #1 12-19-2005, 10:43 AM

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I thought it was extremely marginal, if good at all, to call the 3-bet. Given that UTG called, I figured the pot would get huge. I wasn't thinking about the cap.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero ...

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This is why you fold preflop. Best case you have 5 outs against KK/QQ.

Worst case you flop top pair in a ginormous pot, but you have 2 outs.

#2 12-19-2005, 11:12 AM

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This is why you fold preflop. Best case you have 5 outs against KK/QQ.

Worst case you flop top pair in a ginormous pot, but you have 2 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to figure out how bad the preflop actually is. Best result for the call is what happened in this hand. Everyone comes along and MP3 doesn't cap. I'm getting 13.5:2 immediate odds. Assume MP3 and CO will always call, or MP3 will cap and CO will fold, so we can automatically count 2 extra SB in the pot. 15.5:2, which is slightly less than the 16:2 needed to flop a flush draw. Adding in the rare cases of two pair, trips, backdoor flushes, boats, and quads, I think this is a pretty even overlay to call. Without a cap, I would only have to make up 0.5BB postflop, which is all but guaranteed in a pot this huge.

If I can expect at least one more player to call, then this puts my call into the profitable range. Furthermore, because so many bets are going in preflop, I can expect to get paid on my big hands, thereby increasing my implied odds for the call.

If UTG had folded, I could see myself folding this most of the time. However, her money in the pot makes it close, and increases the likelihood of another player coming along for the ride.

#3 12-19-2005, 02:00 PM

Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ...

damaniac · #4 12-19-2005, 03:38 PM

Bet the turn. Is this close?

hobbsmann · #5 12-19-2005, 04:42 PM

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Bet the turn. Is this close?

[/ QUOTE ]
no

#6 12-19-2005, 05:25 PM

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Bet the turn. Is this close?

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ...

damaniac · #7 12-19-2005, 05:54 PM

I really want to keep betting. I figure BB has AK, maybe AQ, but it could be he's just getting scared with JJ or something. I sort of expect him to make a crying call too (pot's big, can't fold in big pots, etc). UTG, well no draw that he's likely on came in on the river, so I'm again tempted to bet and watch him fold a busted draw or call with a worse seven or a six. Presumably call a c/r.

Rex Ruthless · #8 12-20-2005, 11:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't put the BB on a pair, but UTG has just been calling all along. Does he have a pair higher than 7's? Don't know for sure, but I have been erroring on the side of value betting lately, so I say value bet it. If I were your opponent, I would not put you on a set - most would slowplay a set on that flop.

Rex Ruthless · #9 12-19-2005, 05:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (21.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Things are looking more promising - looking more & more like two big A hands have missed and you're measely pair of 7's might be best --> BET.

gopnik · #10 12-19-2005, 02:45 PM

I raise to make it unprofitable for 3 outers (AK, AQ) to call this.(they still will, they just won't know that they are not getting the right odds.)
Plus, some weak overs can fold too.
Yes, I raise.