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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:35 AM
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Default SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:54 AM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Well it depends on what range you put him of course. You need to be extremely tight there, BUT if you expect the small stack to come along it changes things, by a LOT.
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:56 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal. If CO wins, he'll likely be knocking BB out too, so you'd get ITM anyway...
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:02 AM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

I'd be mad pissed if I folded this and BB ended up doubling up as a result. Call!
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:05 AM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this. If something is -$EV it's -$EV. It means *don't do it*. And if you believe you should do it your calculations or your assumptions must be wrong.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:12 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

CEV doesn't mean everything, it missed out on a lot of variables.
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:18 AM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Look at the raiser's mindset. Raiser knows that BB will call because the blind is half his stack. He also knows you'll fold anything to make the money because BB is about to get knocked out. So if he raises, it will be his 2 cards verses BB's random 2 cards. I'd be slightly worried about raising into the big stack, but apparently he wasn't, so he probably has a slightly better than average raising hand. I'd put him on any A7+, K10+, Q10+, any pair&gt;6. From his point of view, I agree with the raise. He's holding a better than average hand verses one random hand, which he can assume is average.

For your mindset, you have to think this through. You are way ahead of most of the hands he could raise with, and only behind to KK, AA, and only slightly ahead of AK. You're looking to double up, and I see this as the perfect opportunity. The only way I fold here is if raiser has been a rock, only raising high pockets or AK.

With only 900 chips, if you don't call this, there is a good chance you're third place.

The three way pot isn't great, but only 280*3 of it will go to the BB if he wins and you can still almost double up. If the BB had a big enough stack to hurt you, he has a big enough stack to fold to 2 all-ins.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:29 AM
eastbay eastbay is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of stuff going on here, and a lot of the replies don't make much sense to me.

First, depending on how CO has been playing the default "maniac" range of 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is probably considerably too tight. If big stack is passive, CO might raise about top 50% here, being happy to go in as a slight favorite with BB's random hand to eliminate him.

Second, there's a weakness to the analysis here that falls into the "ultra-short stack" category. If you fold, SnGPT assumes BB will also fold. This isn't a good assumption here, since BB will call a lot of the time, and that has important consequences for this bubble hand.

Since he's more or less out if he folds, and he's probably near 50/50 to double up or bust if he calls, then the analysis isn't considering the 50% chance that he doubles if you fold. This lowers your "Fold EV" quite a bit, since we're on the bubble.

Therefore, I think the analysis is overtightening your call range here due to the aforementioned effects. I call the QQ in practice, although I think I could possibly be convinced otherwise if the analysis was expanded to include the BB's call properly.

Considering action behind your fold is in the plans for improving SnGPT, but it's kind of a complex thing to do it well.

eastbay
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  #9  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:39 AM
ZeroPointMachine ZeroPointMachine is offline
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.
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  #10  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:58 AM
ZeroPointMachine ZeroPointMachine is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 136
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of stuff going on here, and a lot of the replies don't make much sense to me.

First, depending on how CO has been playing the default "maniac" range of 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is probably considerably too tight. If big stack is passive, CO might raise about top 50% here, being happy to go in as a slight favorite with BB's random hand to eliminate him.

Second, there's a weakness to the analysis here that falls into the "ultra-short stack" category. If you fold, SnGPT assumes BB will also fold. This isn't a good assumption here, since BB will call a lot of the time, and that has important consequences for this bubble hand.

Since he's more or less out if he folds, and he's probably near 50/50 to double up or bust if he calls, then the analysis isn't considering the 50% chance that he doubles if you fold. This lowers your "Fold EV" quite a bit, since we're on the bubble.

Therefore, I think the analysis is overtightening your call range here due to the aforementioned effects. I call the QQ.

Considering action behind your fold is in the plans for improving SnGPT, but it's kind of a complex thing to do it well.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack. I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.

I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.

Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.
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