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  #31  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:26 PM
eastbay eastbay is offline
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Posts: 647
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

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If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

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except this time, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

True but irrelevant.

eastbay
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  #32  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:27 PM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

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[ QUOTE ]
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Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

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Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

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Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

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Just for the record, if he had 32o, and he put you on a pair he'd need ~5:1 pot odds. In reality, he is probably getting the odds he needs because he'd raise with a decent hand only.
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  #33  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:32 PM
downtown downtown is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 33
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.
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  #34  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:39 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Edited, sorry for the comment. I just thought it was dumb that someone was giving what seemed like a condescending "hint" to a new guy that wasn't correct.

2) Edited. When I said pretty good chance that raiser was a donk trying to steal and would fold, I meant around 25%.
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  #35  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:20 PM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

You're looking to double up, and I see this as the perfect opportunity

This is a great quote because I think it does a good job of demonstrating what things like ICM and SNGPT do. You should be able to feel this, but doing the math helps. Your main objective at this stage is not looking for double ups with these stacks.

Sorry if I'm taking your stuff out of context, but this is the part of the game where double ups need to be near certain for them to be worth the risk. Stack disparity, stack disparity.
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  #36  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:31 PM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,401
Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

[ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

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I see this situation extremely rarely, so I don't have a good idea. But I'd think that BB would need at least an average level of savviness to put this together. I think he can fold with a lot of garbage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see many BBs at the 22s calling with 66 or A8 type holdings, either.
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  #37  
Old 12-30-2005, 04:56 PM
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Default Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....

Ok, my expected value analysis:

QQ is 18% against KK, AA
QQ is 56% against AK
QQ is 71% against Ax, Kx
QQ is 67% against Axs
QQ is 80% against a lower pair
QQ is 85% against two lower unpaired
QQ is 78% against lower suited connectors.

It's of course possible he has AA, KK, but his big bet says he doesn't want action, so these aren't likely. Most likely is A8+, K10+, or a lower pair. I'm anywhere from 67% to 80% to win. Lets use 74% as our odds of winning.

If BB folds to hero's all-in and CO calls: EV:
Hero wins:
Stacks are: CO 1755
Hero 2055
SB 4060
BB 130
Hero is 1st 30%, 2nd 38%, 3rd 30%, and 4th 2%
My EV when I win (74% of the time) is .3*100+.38*60*.3*40+.02*0=64.8
Total EV is .74*64.8 = $47.9

If Hero folds, BB calls, we'll say Cutoff wins 58% of the time. When CO wins:
Stacks: CO 3025
Hero 915
SB 4060
My chances are 1st 15%, 2nd 25%, 3rd 60% for an EV of $54. When BB wins:
Stacks: CO 2390
Hero 915
SB 4060
BB 635
My chances are 1st 10%, 2nd 20%, 3rd 40%, 4th 30% for an EV of $38. Given CO wins 58% of the time, my total EV is .58*$54+.42*$38 = $47.28

If BB folded every time, the correct move in my example is to push all in, though it is really a toss up. You could change percentages for 1st-4th, and also for winning the hands, and get a different answer. IMO, you should also factor in the fact that occasionally BB will call, and that occasionally CO will fold, with both cases making the EV for raising all in more than the EV for folding.
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