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  #101  
Old 12-29-2005, 01:54 AM
rvg72 rvg72 is offline
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Posts: 113
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely agree with you. ICM does break down when stacks get extremely low. For example, a player with 300 chips when the BB is at 30 has the same ICM value as he does when the BB is at 400 which clearly wouldn't be the case. Additionally, this player would have the same ICM value if he was going to post the 400 chip BB in 1 hand or in 6 hands. Remember, ICM is supposed to give you your fair market value.

Clearly, if you had the opportunity to "buy" this players 400 stack and take over for him for whatever value ICM says it is worth then you would prefer the 30 BB over the 400 BB and you would always prefer being further away from having to post the blinds.

ICM does not take "time" or lack there of it, imminent blinding out or complete lack of Fold Equity into account. So, it undervalues short stacks when the blinds are low and overvalues them when the blinds are high and, when stacks are low and blinds are high the short stacks ICM drops each hand as he gets closer to being forced to post the blinds.

rvg
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  #102  
Old 12-29-2005, 09:50 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

So, I 've read allmost all posts and I think pushing is best here. Three reasons:

1) J8o with two possible callers is good enough outright to justify risking the little equity that you have left.
2) Winning this push will not win you the tourney nor will it relieve much of the pressure. You will have to go all-in again pretty soon anyway. It is better to win the next one with more than 330 chips. This will get you some place.
3) In that spot, you do not so much play your cards but the situation. The situation here is one of the better ones. IMO, the optimum situation would be to call behind a big stack's all-in (he should have a lot of FE) to get HU with him with a chance to triple up. The current chip distribution will make this very unlikely however. You are sitting in front of the bigger stacks. Moreover, during the next hands everybody will have to push through the big stack, so they will tighten up and you will not enter HU with the big stack with a lot of dead money included.

So the plan should be to push here, win the HU and push at the next opportunity, preferably against the big stack in SB and BB, and win this one too. Then you could suddenly be looking at 1300 chips and chalk up another ITM.
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  #103  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:19 AM
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Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.
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  #104  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:04 AM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
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Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.
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  #105  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:28 AM
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Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.
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  #106  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:54 AM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you were SB and thought your Ax was good against button's raise would you flat call or RR here? I think flat calling by SB is a mistake so I dont see why we are all discussing there being two callers as though it were a common occurrence.
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  #107  
Old 12-29-2005, 11:59 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Posts: 360
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.
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  #108  
Old 12-29-2005, 12:05 PM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.

[/ QUOTE ]

welcome to my world...I thought i was just "passing by" in this thread and lo and behold, 50 posts later...I'm still here defending this stupid push.
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  #109  
Old 12-29-2005, 12:48 PM
citanul citanul is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 64
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

Jukel,

Please start making posts with content or be banned.

c
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  #110  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:13 PM
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Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
Hank, I wouldn't waste my breath if I were you. These clowns won't listen to reason. Just be glad that we are thinking players rather than braindead pushbotters. You are correct to question the "common consensus" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the clown here.

As much as I may not understand why this is an obvious push, you are characterizing it as an obvious fold - when it is clearly not that either.

The difference is that you are a complete [censored], while most of the people here actually take the time to think about what they are doing.

IMHO you should really shut the f*ck up because you just sound like an idiot.
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