Critique pls...AQ in big pot

[tipperdog]

Honestly not sure how I should have played this. Anyone bet flop? Fold turn? Raise river? Why? Playing Party 5/10.

In UTG, I open-raise A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. New to table MP calls two cold. Tight MP2 3-bets and super-LAG OTB calls 3-cold. Blinds fold. Far from excited about my hand, I call, as does MP.

The flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I check, planning to learn from the action behind. If all hell breaks loose, I'll fold, but I'll likely call one bet for backdoor value alone. MP checks, the PF 3-bettor bets and the button calls. Now getting some 15:1, this is an easy call for me. MP calls as well.

The turn is the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I now have a one-card gutshot to go with my overcards. Counting outs is very tough here. Red jacks aren't clean. Even black jacks lose to KQ or possibly split the pot. My overcards need to be heavily discounted (a Q on the river makes a straight for any J AND the tight 3-bettor could easily have KK or AA). Do my overcards have ANY value here?

I check, MP checks, PF 3-bettor bets, button calls. I'm getting some 11:1. Good enough? I call and MP calls.

Bingo, the river delivers the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, MP checks, PF 3-bettor bets, button calls, I call (?), MP calls.

[krammatrix]

raise the river

[Nick C]

I think it's fine until the river, when I would probably lead. The board's very scary, and I would fear a check-through.

That said, if you wake up and bet the river into three opponents on this board, that's going to be pretty scary for any of your opponents who doesn't hold a queen, too.

Once you check and Button bets and gets called, I kind of want to checkraise. However, I think you may have trouble getting calls from worse hands, and I wouldn't exactly be happy if I got 3-bet.

In any event, the overcall you got from MP was nice. I think checkraising on the river once the action got back to you would probably have been better, but I'm not sure.

[KDawgCometh]

i think leading the river is smart, but the way you played it, you should CR it. I am wondering if a flop CR wouldn't be a bad idea. We have two backdoor draws and some overcards(granted they may be tainted), but this does seem like a spot to maybe pump the pot with our combined draws.

[dantheman_05]

good plau until the river. u shoudl spend some time on your river play, i think it may be weak. bet this river 100%, only KT has u beat..it doesntget much better than that and you are lucky your oponent bet your hand for you becasue this board will scare many ppl to check their hand.

[hobbsmann]

As far as counting outs goes in this hand I would give you a conservative four making this a profitable call: 2 black J's and ~2 more for the other J's and A outs combined. In reality you probably have more, but in this case you still can make a good call and thus the turn was well played.

[tipperdog]

First, failing to check-raise (or bet) the river was clearly a blunder. I checked planning to check raise, got the exact action expected and suddenly chickened out. No excuse there...bad play.

Second, results notwithstanding, I'm now seriously questioning my turn call. If you accept that I have 4 "effective" outs (which I think is a reasonable guess), I'm getting correct odds...but only if I'll win the entire pot. Given that I'm splitting with any Q if a J hits, I don't think that's an assumption I can make. However, I'm glad I wasn't thinking this "clearly" yesterday.

Results: The "tight" MP 3-bettor had A5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Guess my read was a bit off [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Super-LAG called 3-bets cold with AJo, a horrid play, but not surprising. And the MP PF cold caller had 99--a flopped set which he chose to slowplay on among the nastiest boards imaginable. They are all on my buddy list.