AQs - count your outs?

[Skuzzy]

Not sure about this hand at all and it should be standard stuff. I have a strong hand preflop and position. Flop two overs and the nut flush draw. Villain's stats are 30/10, and I know he likes to Cbet just about every time. Whats your line here against a pre flop raiser?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($84.03)
UTG+1 ($126.82)
UTG+2 ($37.90)
MP1 ($98.50)
MP2 ($70.35)
MP3 ($120)
CO ($28.50)
Hero ($201.60)
SB ($105.50)
BB ($68.79)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($10.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $7</font>, MP3 folds, Hero ?

[kitaristi0]

Semibluff raise.

[JustToast]

I'm raising this flop.

[Hattifnatt]

I make it 25-30 on the flop and call if he pushes.

[Skuzzy]

OK, is the semi bluff something you do only against a player who Cbets lots and may fold here to a decent raise ( say $20 here)? What's your plan for a blank turn if he calls? Are you hoping he checks the turn and gives you a free look at the river?

[Morrek]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, is the semi bluff something you do only against a player who Cbets lots and may fold here to a decent raise ( say $20 here)? What's your plan for a blank turn if he calls? Are you hoping he checks the turn and gives you a free look at the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's pretty much the idea here, get a free card. I might check behind if a club falls aswell, and raise big river.
Oh and no, I usually raise here without considering his playstyle really

[Hattifnatt]

I certainly check a blank (except maybe against a player who OFTEN give up on the turn and with something like a pot-bet left) turn if he calls the semi-bluff raise.

[Skuzzy]

You call a push here too? $10.5 on the flop, he bets +7, u raise so +25, he pushes ~116 more, so 148.5 in the pot and $91 to call so 1.63:1, with just 9 outs you need 1.86:1 so what sways you to call the push here?

[Hattifnatt]

Yes, I call a push, you might have 15 outs.

[Morrek]

Not sure about a push here, wouldn't expect it from pre flop raiser who bets the flop, most people slowplay sets etc.
But I'm thinking fold here unless I know he pushes draws or hands worse than sets, seeing as you're 25/75 vs set