5/10 Learning When to Fold

This is a nice quick short one. A friend and I have been looking at turn fold/call-down situations, and had a disagreement about this hand. Villian is unknown.

Pacific Poker 5 handed 5/10

Preflop: I have AKs UTG
I raise, CO calls, rest fold

Flop: Q Q A two diamonds
I bet, CO raises, I 3-bet, CO calls

Turn: 4 diamonds
I bet, CO raises, I ...

currently 8.7BB in the pot, getting about 5:1 effective odds on a call down.

[Cernunnos]

villian shows the Q most likely or a flush, unless a total maniac, so I fold. drawing to the 2 A's for a house not worth it.

[spydog]

Call me weak, but I just call down the flop raise.

Since you 3-bet and led the turn, I would fold to a raise. Do you think AJ or worse is raising you here?

[stigmata]

Villain is clearly telling you he can beat top pair. Against most 5/10'ers I would be inclined to believe them. You need a read to call down. I might also call down if I have been having to make a lot of "good laydowns" on the turn, and have a strong suspicion that villain is now capable of making a play. Mostly it's a fold though.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I let it go. Look at it from his point of view, he knows exactly what you have. I only call here when players get mad at me which happenes occasionally and they are 1-3bb away from going bust.

Thanks for that. Some good advice.

My thinking on the flop was that he has a Ace weaker kicker, or a flush draw more often then a Q, so I 3 bet. I lead the turn knowing that I can fold to a raise, but get value out of a weaking Ace. If it was a non flush card I would have been more inclined to call down.

As it was, I seen his raise as being very strong in this situation.