Why can't I fold...i know exactly what he has...!

[krishanleong]

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Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown.

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We have so many hidden outs it is ridiculous.

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When you factor in preflop you can't say he has tons of hidden outs. For every weak 2 pair combo I say he's behind 4-5 AK-AQ combos.

Krisahn

[MrWookie47]

Not to mention the possibility of a set.

[TomBrooks]

How about raise the flop and call a three bet, but if BB leads off the turn, fold. If BB checks the turn, bet and fold to a checkraise. ????????

[Cernunnos]

What Tom said
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How about raise the flop and call a three bet, but if BB leads off the turn, fold. If BB checks the turn, bet and fold to a checkraise. ????????


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and regardless of the marginal nature of the pre flop call, this hand only gets you into trouble if you start contradicting your own thought process in the hand, which is what has annoyed you.

[krishanleong]

misread hand

[car ramrod]

I would prolly fold pf, if I did call I agree w/ Krishan that we should play wa/wb here.

[krishanleong]

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I would prolly fold pf

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Me too.

Krishan

[kidcolin]

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50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish.

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I agree. What I mentioned about not creaming over the stats still holds, though. If 3 different players caught me for 50 hand stretches while datamining, one might see me as 23/16, one might get 35/22, and one 15/7.

If I only have 50 hands on a guy I'm going to rely much, much more on how I've percieved his play THIS session. If he's been here for 4 or 5 orbits and hasn't raised yet, then yeah, I'll probably dump AJo PF to his UTG raise. If I get the impression he's raising with more hands than his 2 PFR indicates, then I'm going to tangle with him more freely.

[LoaferGee12]

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50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish. We don't want to take it as gospel, either, but we can look and see that this guy probably isn't raising all that many hands preflop, and we're up against something good. Granted, there are exceptions. I was up against a guy on UB about a month ago who had a PFR of about 5%, but I was iso-3betting him with KJo, A8o, and stuff because he only raised junky hands. He slowplayed his good stuff. There aren't very many of these guys, though. Barring a real read, we can't assign a significant probability to this guy only raising his junk hands.

Just as we do Bayesian analysis when we consider hand ranges, the same math applies to opponent ranges. There's a probability this guy's true stats are 25/2. He might also be 30/10. Or 10/1. Or 40/20. He might be raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands, the 2nd 10%, or the bottom 10%. However, base on the ranges of players who, after 50 hands, have these stats, it's most probable that this guy has a VPIP of 20-30, a PFR of 1-7, and is raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands. Even if you want to completely disregard stats until you have thousands of hands of data on the guy, you're most correct to look at the average player from your database. This would be something like a VPIP of around 35, PFR around 12, and raises from a subset of the top 20% of hands. I'd strongly consider folding against this guy, too.

If someone is going to convince me that this is indeed a call preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure, you're going to have to make a much more convincing case than just saying "sample size too small."

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Couldn't have put it better myself. Nice post.

[Koss]

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If I only have 50 hands on a guy I'm going to rely much, much more on how I've percieved his play THIS session. If he's been here for 4 or 5 orbits and hasn't raised yet, then yeah, I'll probably dump AJo PF to his UTG raise. If I get the impression he's raising with more hands than his 2 PFR indicates, then I'm going to tangle with him more freely.

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I'm not sure how you would go about doing this unless you've seen the 1 hand he's raised so far and it was Q8 from UTG. You criticize the small sample size as far as using statistics, but trying to get a read on this guys general style of preflop play and ignoring stats isn't going to be much easier over 50 hands IMO.