SNG Hand Analysis

[legendary loser]

This was a little bit weak, but at the time, it seemed okay.
$22 Party SnG. Blinds are 100-200. I have T2000 in SB, BB has T400, UTG has T5000 and button has T600. I get AKs in the SB. UTG had been loose aggressive (and called all ins with Ax, K10, etc) and raises to T600. My normal play is to re-raise all in. I didn't want to re-raise all in and have him call with QJ or pp and beat me. I folded, took the T100 loss and let the other two short stacks go out.
comments are appreciated.

[Marcotte]

Depends on how bad you want first and what your read on the big stack is. If he is competent, he will probably lay down all but JJ and up to your push. OTOH, going out on the bubble would really suck in this situation. I think folding is OK, but you need to raise every unopened pot you see from this point on. You can't let the big stack steal both short stacks while you wait to get heads-up. If you do, you will be down 7-1.

I have more 4ths than 2nds+3rds, which probably means I would push here. I'd like to here what others have to say because I'm not sure about my answer. (Do others think big stack will call a push with less than JJ?)

[SoCalPat]

All I know is this: If I'm the chip leader here and I have a true monster, I'm limping, not raising. I want the small stacks to get the idea they can see the flop cheaply and then club them over the head if the flop nicks them. Or maybe my limp will get the small stacks with decent hands to come over the top.

If I lose here, it's not that big of a deal because unless I lose to Our Hero, I'm still the chip leader. If I lose to Hero, my stack is still such that I can survive the blinds and finish no worse than second. Winning this hand and busting a player (or two) further improves my chances of winning.

It would be almost tragic to just earn the blinds here with AA or KK, given the stack sizes out there on the bubble.

That, coupled with the knowledge Hero has of UTG's calling standards, makes this an easy push for me with AKs. At worst, he's facing QQ.

[DougL]

Nice handle.

I could be wrong, but I would love to get all-in PF vs the big stack on a likely steal. This isn't because he likely has any two, but rather because he is likely to have Ax or Kx a fair amount of the time.

So, I push here. If he folds, good. He will be even less eager to steal your blind. If he calls, great. You get to play a 75-25 to be the chip leader with a great shot at no worse than 2nd.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Call me weak, but I fold this. 4-handed with 2 short stacks, I don't want to be involved in a pot with the chip leader unless I'm holding AA, KK, or QQ, especially a raised one. Based on your read, you're probably ahead here, but you might not be and folding still leaves you in pretty good shape.

[MisterJed]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how bad you want first

[/ QUOTE ]
It basically comes down to this. I personally would begrudgingly wait it out, in case he does have something like a QJ or pocket pair and you lose.

[Sidekick]

Personally I push here.

If UTG has been calling all-ins with Ax and Kx and bullying the table I'm not likely to get a better chance to improve my situation than this hand.

If UTG folds then great! I have extra chips that now give me an even bigger advantage over the 2 short stacks and moves me closer to the chip leader.

If UTG calls, then from your experience of what he plays you most likely have him dominated or it is possibly a coin flip.

I agree with Marcotte in that most players that have been doing this will either limp or min raise with AA or KK in this situation to try and knock someone out.

While it would hurt to get knocked out here, I think you need this pot to put yourself into a position to win this tournament. Otherwise I think you are saying, "I'm just trying to finish ITM and hopefully 2nd."

If you wait and then BB and/or button double up, then you can wind up fighting just to finish ITM.

I think you have to push this hand and risk getting knocked out to give yourself the best chance for finishing 1st or 2nd.

Marcotte: from what the original poster said I would expect UTG to call with Ax or Kx here. Of course UTG could have pure crap and just be stealing.

[Myst]

I push the best hand here, and hope that he calls.

[TheWorks]

i fold and run like a little girl [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
This was a little bit weak, but at the time, it seemed okay.
$22 Party SnG. Blinds are 100-200. I have T2000 in SB, BB has T400, UTG has T5000 and button has T600. I get AKs in the SB. UTG had been loose aggressive (and called all ins with Ax, K10, etc) and raises to T600. My normal play is to re-raise all in. I didn't want to re-raise all in and have him call with QJ or pp and beat me. I folded, took the T100 loss and let the other two short stacks go out.
comments are appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not just call here? This may cause the bb to fold (if he's extremely weak-tight), leaving him with 200, as he may hope you and the big stack get involved in a hand where you go all-in and bust. You'll flop an A or K 1/3 of the time, at which point you can push. If the big stack has an A or K, he may very well pay you off in such a scenario, and you'll be the new chip leader. If you miss the flop and the big stack bets, you can fold and be left with 1400, which is still more than double the 2 short stacks.

If the bb does go all-in and both of you get busted by the big stack, you'll still finish in 3rd, as you had more chips to begin with.

The second worst case scenario is you call, the bb goes all-in, you miss the flop, and the bb triples up. This still leaves you with over twice as much as the shortest stack of 600, who'll be in the blinds for half his stack the next two hands.