overplay of AKs?

[daboze]

This is one I struggle with as well. It can be hard to lay down AKs in the lower buy-ins because the re-raise can often be hands you have dominated.

But personally I came to the conclusion that it's not worth the risk this early. I feel that my late game is good enough that I would prefer to rely on it rather than take a coinflip for all my chips.

[lacky]

first hand I guess I'd go all in. I either triple up and control the table for the rest of the tourney, or I start another with under 2 minutes invested in this one.

[IvyGrizzly]

Well if you look at my own odds I've given the player UTG a 70% chance of being in a coinflip or dominating position on me. It might be a little lower if you add KQ to his possible hands.

The player in the SB obviously has something, probably a medium pair, but just as likely I'm sharing something in a three way all-in. That makes my odds even worse. I'm getting 2 to 1 on my money and from my guesses I'll lose far more often than that in this situation. I'm covered by both players so that's unfavorable. It's early in the tournament, I've only committed ~1/6 of my stack, blinds are at their minimum, I can afford to take the hit and use my (generally) better play to succeed. The correct option is to fold.

In this instance I wasn't a mature enough player. I gambled and went all-in, as expected the BB followed, and UTG turned over KK, catching a third king on the flop. I think my biggest weaknesses in NL hold em' right now are playing medium pairs and extracting myself from these situations before they cripple my stack. My ability to sense the right moment needs work, but it's improving.

[threeonefour]

you mean 39 to 71 favorite... the individual is getting more than his/her fair share of the pot then

[MisterJed]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you making money long-term playing SNG's?

If yes, Fold.

If no, Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty good advice. If you usually cash in your tourneys anyway (or often enough), no reason to risk your tourney life right here.

[C M Burns]

if you assume (prob corectly) that the bb will call, you would be getting better than 2-1 odds (given the $ you already bet) so call/fold become mainly a math ev question. to break even you need to be about 32% to win on average. against 2 under pairs like qq 99 you are about 38%, ax qq 35%, kk Ax 20% kk jj 29% ax ax 55%, and AA v low, on average you are probably less than 32% so a fold is probably correct, but given the odds a call is not that terrible, and as some one said if you loose money in genral probably worth the risk.