$20/40, those forum regulars: Pocket Sevens.

[LarsVegas]

I know there is a mistake in here somewhere, but can I really raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet? Provided KB folds, I am getting something like 16-to-1 on my last call, and I guess I will be playing 2.5 outs on average (usually 2, sometimes 4 against 3-3 or even 5-5 and on some very rare occasions, 0 outs). And against an unknown player playing his very first real pot against me, there's always the added 2-3% chance that he's just a true maniac.

As for folding the river, which very well might have been a mistake, here's how I see it:

On the turn, I am getting 12.5-to-1 on my call. This is nearly enough to just draw to the two sevens and the occasional nine which could easily hold up against threes full and some flush draw / smaller pocket kind of hand. I also give my hand some very slight showdown value, but quite a few things I didn't like happened after my turn call:

1) The KB's overcall on the turn, leaving him behind me to act on the river after UN's bets.

2) The Ace (overcard) on the river. Another possibility of getting beat there. As I was, I wanted more undercards to the board, as results showed, undercards was excactly the only thing I needed to avoid here.

3) The river got bet again.

4) I didn't hit a seven (or nine).

But I guess the mistake lies in the river fold. I don't really fancy raising the turn with a dubious hand here, when I am unlikely to be drawing dead even in the face of a turn 3-bet.

lars