2/4 AA on flush board. Value bet river?

ryanghall · #1 08-10-2005, 06:45 PM

Empire 400NL full ring.

I have $388, Villain (58/13/2.4) covers.

I get A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.

Loose guy limps, Villain limps in late position, I raise to $20. They both call.

Flop (3 way) is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet $55. 1st loose guy folds, Villain calls.

Turn (2 way) is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, he checks.

River (2 way) is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet $150.

Played correctly?

dtbog · #2 08-10-2005, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have $388, Villain (58/13/2.4) covers.

...

Flop (3 way) is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet $55. Villain calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a 2.4 calling but not raising here with?

ryanghall · #3 08-10-2005, 06:55 PM

Is this supposed to be a rhetorical question?

He could have plenty of hands here, I'm sure.

Jx, 2 spades, KQ, 98, 22, maybe something else? Who knows with this guy.

DoomSlice · #4 08-10-2005, 06:56 PM

Too much on river, you want to maximize the chances that you'll be called by a worse hand, and the chances that he had JT and checked behind on the turn are close to nil.

dtbog · #5 08-10-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jx, 2 spades, KQ, 98, 22, maybe something else? Who knows with this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's all I was wondering. 2.4 PFAF is high enough that he'd raise a lot of hands in position here, but if you're suggesting that he could be calling (and not raising) with a lot of hands, then I'm not sure about the river bet.

It seems that it's a lot more likely that you'll get to pick off a bluff here than that he'll call a $150 bet with a hand that you beat. The only hand that might pay you off here, IMO, is JT who wasn't minding his deuces.

dtbog · #6 08-10-2005, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Too much on river, you want to maximize the chances that you'll be called by a worse hand, and the chances that he had JT and checked behind on the turn are close to nil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he thought.. nah, I'll get him to bluff the river to represent the flush! This is plausible.

ryanghall · #7 08-10-2005, 07:04 PM

You guys may be giving this schmuck way too much credit. Look at his stats....

TheWorstPlayer · #8 08-10-2005, 07:12 PM

Yes. Hope he snaps off your bluff with his pair. But raise more preflop out of position against loose limpers.

dtbog · #9 08-10-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. Hope he snaps off your bluff with his pair. But raise more preflop out of position against loose limpers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm giving this guy orders of magnitude more credit than he deserves, but the OP says his PFAF is 2.4. This seems to me like an aggressive fish, rather than a passive one.

Aggressive fish don't usually snap off a bluff by calling, they do so by making a huge bet. Villain might not realize that if he pushes a hand like AJ there, he's only getting called if he's beat.. so he might say "aha! my opponent is bluffing! i must push!" at which point Hero vomits.

Also, aggressors are much less likely to be calling stations than they are to bluff the river... hence I don't mind giving him the ball and seeing what he does with it.

TheWorstPlayer · #10 08-10-2005, 07:34 PM

He's aggro, but he's also loose as hell. I wonder what his WSD% is. I don't mind a c/c on the river, either, but I certainly don't think a value bet is bad either. I think you'll see a J here plenty of times.