Does defending BB require a lot of bluffing post-flop?

[Wynton]

I keep reading here about people who defend BB a lot more than me, even some who say they defend headsup steal attempts virtually 100% of the time.

But if you are defending the BB 80% or more, doesn't this mean that you have to be willing to bluff post-flop a significant percentage of the time, i.e., even more than one might be expected to bluff in other circumstances?

This question is significant to me because I think that I defend BB less than most here for the reason that I don't have a clear plan how to proceed after the flop. Perhaps if I realize that blind defense assumes an intention to bluff a certain percentage of the time I'll have a better understanding of when it makes sense to defend.

[Nate tha' Great]

No, the whole thing about defending the BB more is that it isn't hard to show a profit against a loose raiser simply by playing fit-or-fold and making sure that you see a showdown the vast majority of times that you make a pair. Certainly you should be doing some semi-bluffing when you flop a decent draw (btw, a gutshot can be quite a strong draw when you likely also have pairing outs) but you don't need to get too fancy when you miss.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
No, the whole thing about defending the BB more is that it isn't hard to show a profit against a loose raiser simply by playing fit-or-fold and making sure that you see a showdown the vast majority of times that you make a pair. Certainly you should be doing some semi-bluffing when you flop a decent draw (btw, a gutshot can be quite a strong draw when you likely also have pairing outs) but you don't need to get too fancy when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the numbers, but it seems that if I play "fit or fold" (which has been my habit, by the way) that I should NOT be defending headsup over 80% of the time. (I would think that the proper number would have been less than 70% of the time, playing just "fit or fold," even assuming that draws count as "fitting.")

Am I making some fundamental miscalculation here?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, the whole thing about defending the BB more is that it isn't hard to show a profit against a loose raiser simply by playing fit-or-fold and making sure that you see a showdown the vast majority of times that you make a pair. Certainly you should be doing some semi-bluffing when you flop a decent draw (btw, a gutshot can be quite a strong draw when you likely also have pairing outs) but you don't need to get too fancy when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the numbers, but it seems that if I play "fit or fold" (which has been my habit, by the way) that I should NOT be defending headsup over 80% of the time. (I would think that the proper number would have been less than 70% of the time, playing just "fit or fold," even assuming that draws count as "fitting.")

[/ QUOTE ]

One way to think about it is like this:

How often will you "fit"? You'll make a pair about 1/3 of the time. Some of those times you won't like the flop (something like AK8 when you hold 87 isn't favorable) but other times you'll flop a good draw that doesn't involve a pair so 1/3 is a pretty reasonable estimate.

So 2/3 of the time you miss and fold.

The other 1/3 of the time, you'll "fit", usually by making a a pair. Let's say that your pot equity is about 62.5% when you "fit", which is what I get using Pokerstove when I have you flopping a pair of 8's against a typical range of stealing hands. We'll further simpify things by saying that your opponent will always bet the flop and that you'll check-raise when you "fit" and that these are the last bets that go into the pot.

If that's the case, then:

66.7% of the time, you'll flop nothing and fold at a cost of $5.

20.8% of the time, you'll "fit" and check-raise the flop and win, for a net profit of $25.

12.5% of the time, you'll "fit" and check-raise the flop but will lose the pot, for a net loss of $15.

The way this works out, this simplified strategy almost exactly breaks even.

But this also assumes that there is no betting after your flop-check raise. Surely you will make some additional money on the turn *those times that you've made a pair*, and your opponent will be forced to either call a bet with a second-best hand or will fold, correctly or perhaps not, when the river card might have won the pot for him.

[ctv1116]

usually they say you should fold BB to steal 60% of the time, or defend your BB 40% of the time.

[Wynton]

Thanks for taking the time to explain that, Nate. Very helpful.

[Village Idiot]

[ QUOTE ]
usually they say you should fold BB to steal 60% of the time, or defend your BB 40% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
According to Sklanksky and Malmuth you should defend your BB 40% of the time.
Otherwise the SB will be making a profit by bluffing you off if he bluffs every time.
Looking to find hands to play looks like this.
Play any pair, any Ace, any two cards that are 9 or better, play any suited 1 gap or 2 gap connectors that are not 4-2 or 3-2.
This is approx. 39% of the possible starting hands.
So you throw in a few more hands like 98o or 78o J9o to get to 40%.

The heads up chapter in Skalanky and Malmuth's Poker for Advanced Players explains this concept very well playing out of the BB, and explains it for 3 handed as well.